Hockey Studies

NHL Playoff Format

2006-02-28T21:00:00.000-08:00

In my opinion, the NHL playoff format needs to be revamped. Why? The current format has 16 of 30 teams headed to post-season play. Not only do the six division leaders make the cut, but 10 other teams make it. It's too easy to make the cut. The Presidents' Trophy winning team is given no special treatment other than home-ice "advantage" throughout the playoffs. Advantage is in quotations because it can be a factor but is many times an overestimated facet of a seven game series. The most important thing about home-ice advantage is having Game 7 in your own building. Other than that, it's really a toss up whether or not it helps your club. In addition, the top teams from each conference are not rewarded enough for their successful seasons.

My idea is to give more importance to the divisions. In my prospective playoff format, I'd give automatic playoff bids to the six division winners, and have 6 at large/wildcard seeds to split between the East and West. Conference winners and teams that finish second in points will get a first bound bye. This gives teams a reason to play hard and stay second in points in their conference even though they really may be a forth seed.

In the first round, the 1 and 2/4 seeds will have a bye. Facing off is 3 versus 5 (if 4 seed has bye) or 6 (if 2 seed has bye). Then, either the 2 seed plays 6 (if 4 seed has bye) or 4 seed plays 5 (if 2 seed has bye). A major premise of this bye system is to reward teams for placing second in points in their conference even if they are only getting the forth seed based on being in a tough division. This is a situation that has played out before when the Wings and Blues were close division rivals. The following is a mock playoff example for the West to illustrate how things would pan out under my playoff format:

* = first round bye
(#) = seeding

Central
(1)* Wings 100
(4)* Blues 99
Predators 82
Blue Jackets 75
Blackhawks 68

Northwest
(2) Canucks 95
(5) Avalanche 93
Flames 86
Oilers 83
Wild 72

Pacific
(3) Sharks 94
(6) Stars 89
Kings 84
Mighty Ducks 75
Coyotes 71

For this hypothetical standings, the Wings (1) and Blues (4) would get the first round byes, even though the Blues took a forth seed. The first round wildcard matchups would be Canucks (2) versus Stars (6), and Sharks (3) versus Avalanche (5). In panning out the winners, I'd take Canucks (2) and Sharks (3). Still holding the forth seed, the Blues would be somewhat punished for not taking first in their division, but not overly-so, as they had a first round bye to reward their efforts. The second round would consist of Wings (1) versus Blues (4), and Canucks (2) versus Sharks (3). And so on...

If Only...

So, for this year's standings, the following would've happened in the West if my playoff format was instituted:

* = first round bye
(#) = seeding

Central
(1)* Wings 109
Blues 91
Predators 91
Blue Jackets 62
Blackhawks 59

Northwest
(3) Canucks 101
(4) Avalanche 100
(6) Flames 94
Oilers 89
Wild 83

Pacific
(2)* Sharks 104
(5) Stars 97
Kings 81
Mighty Ducks 76
Coyotes 68

My playoff format cuts out the Blues and Predators, the 7 and 8 seeds, from the 2004 playoffs. 7th and 8th seeds in the Stanley Cup playoffs are often push-overs and have never won a Cup.

So the 2004 playoffs according to me proceeds as follows:

The Wings and Sharks get a first round bye as the top two point-getters and, as it happens, first and second seeds.

Canucks (3) versus Flames (6)
Avalanche (4) versus Stars (5)

The Flames (6) would beat the Canucks (3), and the Avalanche (4) would beat the Stars (5). That would make for a second round looking like this:

Wings (1) versus Flames (6) --> as it happened anyways
Sharks (2) versus Avalanche (4) --> as it happened anyways

The Flames (6) would beat the Wings(1), and the Sharks (2) would beat the Avalanche (4). This creates the same 2004 playoffs (at least when I look at it in this vacuum, not considering how the bye affects the Wings and/or Sharks), and gives the Wings a first round bye, much-needed rest instead of having to play the Predators. In addition, the Sharks don't have to play the Blues (who they easily beat 4-1).

Realizing that the East was insanely tight this past season, let's take a look at how my playoff format affects the coastal teams:

* = first round bye
(#) = seeding

Atlantic
(3) Flyers 101
(6) Devils 100
Islanders 91
Rangers 69
Penguins 58

Northeast
(2)* Bruins 104
(4) Maple Leafs 103
(5) Senators 102
Canadiens 93
Sabres 85

Southeast
(1)* Lightning 106
Thrashers 78
Hurricanes 76
Panthers 75
Capitals 59

Eliminated are the Canadiens and Islanders. Notice that the six 100-pt clubs all make post-season action. With the Lightning and Bruins owning first round byes, the first round would be:

Flyers (3) versus Devils (6) --> as it happened anyways
Maple Leafs (4) versus Senators (5) --> as it happened anyways

Philly and Toronto win their series, and the second round is as follows:

Lightning (1) versus Maple Leafs (4)
Bruins (2) versus Flyers (3)

And who knows what would've happened from there...

The main point of showing the Eastern Conference playoff bracket is that you see how the main contenders play and wallowers (Canadiens, Islanders) are rooted out.

Gary Bettman's Communism

Now I realize that the NHL is all about inclusion, from their efforts to help the needy teams with a future salary cap, to allowing 16 of 30 teams in with the current playoff format, to creating tropical teams which harbor hockey but produce no stars (that's a whole different article!). In addition, the NHL would hate to lose the revenue of four 7th and 8th seed teams participating in the playoffs. While my format keeps with three rounds and a Cup Final, it eliminates four teams and gives four others a bye round. Not exactly following Gary Bettman's Law of Inclusion, but making more sense for teams, like the Wings, who play amazing in the regular season but are given nothing in return. Home-ice is no longer enough "reward" for leading the league in an 82 game season. Like the NFL, the top teams should be given a bye round to rest after their break-neck seasons. And as for teams like the Flames that would narrowly make the post-season under my format, I say this: Make your playoff push earlier!! The Flames were a hungry enough team this past season to make the cut in a chopped-down bracket like I'm offering. And if "deserving" teams miss the cut, they need to learn from the tough experience and make the extra push the following season.

If you don't follow my points about NHL Inclusion, read up on the league's history of playoff formats. If you think 16 of 30 making the playoffs is good odds, in 1979-80, the league included 16 of 21. That was when four WHA franchises entered the league (Edmonton Oilers, Winnipeg Jets, Hartford Whalers and Quebec Nordiques). I used Origins of the Game as reference to my study. By the way, Al Arbour's New York Islanders won the Cup in '80, the first of four straight Cup wins.

Here's a list of Cup winners and their seed, if you're interested in how eliminating the 7 and 8 seeds would affect the past. Realize that the playoff formats changed a lot, as did number of teams in the league at any given time. But my main point is that, despite the league's efforts to give underdogs a chance at winning, they rarely or never do.

2004 Lightning (1)
2003 Devils (2)
2002 Wings (1)
2001 Avalanche (1)
2000 Devils (4)
1999 Stars (1)
1998 Wings (3)
1997 Wings (3)
1996 Avalanche (2)
1995 Devils (5)
1994 Rangers (1)

Below I change from seed to overall conference ranking in points, as the playoff format changed drastically after the 1993 Cup Finals. And looking at those old seedings to our current ones is like apples and oranges.

1993 Canadiens (4)
1992 Penguins (4)
1991 Penguins (3)
1990 Oilers (2)
1989 Flames (1)
1988 Oilers (2)
1987 Oilers (1)
1986 Canadiens (5)
1985 Oilers (1)
1984 Oilers (1)
1983 Islanders (4)
1982 Islanders (1)
1981 Islanders (1)
1980 Islanders (2)
1979 Canadiens (1)
1978 Canadiens (1)
1977 Canadiens (1) -->notably Scotty Bowman's 60-8-12 season
1976 Canadiens (1)
1975 Flyers (1)
1974 Flyers (1)
1973 Canadiens (1)
1972 Bruins (1)
1971 Canadiens (3)
1970 Bruins (2)

Need I continue? This breakdown of the past 35 Stanley Cup winners clearly shows that the top 5 teams in a given conference are the teams that win the Cup. This past year, the Flames were one game away from being the first sixth seed in the modern era to win the Cup. Other than that, Cup winners are most likely division winners or close by. So I am still comfortable axing the 7 and 8 seeds.

Other Leagues

Let's look to other professional leagues, such as the NBA, NFL, and MLB, and see what percentage of regular season teams make the cut for the post-season. Maybe we're being too harsh on 7 and 8. Or not...

NHL currently: 16 of 30 (53.3%)
NHL under my format: 12 of 30 (40%)

NBA: 16 of 29 (55.2%)
NFL: 12 of 32 (37.5%)
MLB: 8 of 30 (26.7%)

As you can see, it's not exactly unprecedented to make the post-season a more special feat. I see the NHL's current system as a sort of grade inflation, allowing teams like the St Louis Blues to make the playoffs 25 straight seasons and not win a thing. Sure, part of it is choking, but I also see some of their failures as simply not warranting a playoff spot. This past season, as a seventh seed, they were smoked by the Sharks 4-1. The Blues didn't deserve to be there, and the Sharks deserved a rest. See where I'm going with this bye system?

Motivation

In an 82-game season, a team's motivation is what keeps them chugging from October to April. With the current playoff format, I honestly don't see what gets the Wings excited about becoming a conference leader. In these days of ever-increasing parity, seeding is not a perfect measure of talent. Just look at the Eastern Conference standings after this past season, and you'll see seeds one through six separated by six points. In the current format, I really don't want the Wings to win another Presidents Trophy and outskate teams for seven months of regular season play, because it really doesn't pay off as for the playoff picture. My format makes a great season pay off by awarding the first round bye.

Admitted Weaknesses

The only weakness of this playoff format is that it guarantees the bye to the team second in points, so they will not be pushing as hard to pass the team in first. But it also gives a reward to these teams that have been screwed over with the current format. In addition, while it helps the 4th seed that may be second in points, it punishes the 5th seed or any other team that comes short for not making that extra push at the end. In the end, there will never be a perfect system, but we should at least push for a system that better rewards top teams for playing well for 82 games through seven months. With a bye system, I believe teams will play harder to try to earn the all-important week-or-more rest. In addition, the current 16 team playoff participants often know they have their spot clinched a month or more in advance. This system cuts the field down to 12 and gives teams who have earned to clinch their spot that much more to play for. I don't believe that my system would slam the door on teams like the 2004 Flames, as they could just start their runs to make the playoffs earlier. And if Bettmanites scoff at my system as intrinsically flawed for cutting down the number of playoff series and thus revenue, I say this: then why the heck are you considering a chopped-down 72-game season? I'm sure the NHLPA would love my playoff format, as our stars can play less and make the same.

In conclusion, we should no longer reward garbage teams playoff seeds and ignore the success of conference champions. The playoffs are not about teams that merely survive the regular season (as in 16), but teams that excel in the 82 games (as in 12).

Where NHL Players Come From

2006-02-28T20:59:00.000-08:00

The following is a list of the places of origin for all current NHL players, based on the active rosters on espn.com as of 6/23/04. This data is intended to give a general idea of where players are coming from. I do not vouch for the numbers to be precisely accurate, as some players were not on the active rosters listed on espn.com when I researched the subject, and I did not feel the need to search these players out individually.

Europe/Other

Czechoslovakia: 79
Russia: 58
Sweden: 44
Finland: 28
Germany: 5
Switzerland: 3
Poland: 2
Brazil: 1
Brunei: 1
France: 1
England: 1
South Korea: 1
Austria: 1
Northern Ireland: 1
South Africa: 1

Total Europe/Other: 227

United States

Massachusetts: 21
Minnesota: 19
Michigan: 15
New York: 15
Rhode Island: 4
Ohio: 4
Connecticut: 4
Indiana: 4
Illinois: 4
California: 3
Colorado: 2
New Jersey: 2
Virginia: 2
Alaska: 2
Delaware: 1
Washington DC: 1
Oklahoma: 1
New Hampshire: 1
Utah: 1
Florida: 1
Texas: 1
Washington: 1
Georgia: 1
Maryland: 1
Pennsylvania: 1
Missouri: 1
Vermont: 1
Nebraska: 1
Iowa: 1

Total United States: 116

Canada

Ontario: 146
Alberta: 66
Quebec: 64
Saskatchewan: 35
British Columbia: 35
Manitoba: 17
Newfoundland: 6
Nova Scotia: 6
New Brunswick: 3
Prince Edward Island: 2
Northwest Territory: 1

Total Canada: 381

Total NHL players documented: 724

Percentages:

Canada: 52.6%
United States: 16.0%
Europe/Other: 31.4%

As seen in the data, the majority of NHL players come from Canada, which only has six teams. This is because Canada boasts a top-notch minor league hockey system, and hockey is the beloved national pastime of Canada.

The United States is home to the other 24 teams in the NHL. Even though nearly all corners of the continental United States harbor hockey, there are only localized niches of the country that actually produce NHL players.

During his reign as NHL Commissioner, Gary Bettman has made a strong effort of trying to diversify the NHL fanbase. This has led to expansion clubs springing up well below the Mason Dixon Line, something that hockey traditionalists are hard-pressed to accept.

Hockey in Paradise

Even though Florida can only get credit for one current NHL player, the state hosts two teams in the Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning. Florida's lone player is Dan Hinote of the Colorado Avalanche. Hinote was born in Leesburg, Florida, but raised in hockey-rich Minnesota, in a city called Elk River, just north of Minneapolis. This phenomenon leads to my main thesis:

Can the NHL broaden its market to tropical states and hockey-deficient communities, which produce no NHL talent, and expect to survive there? And is it in good standing with The Game to import players without producing any talent locally?

I don't want to single out Florida as the microcosm of what many states are in the NHL, but the fact that the Lightning won the Stanley Cup in 2004 makes the Sunshine State fair game.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Looking at the Tampa Bay roster, 15 players come from Canada, 3 from Czechoslovakia, 3 from Russia, 3 from the United States (New York, Colorado, Minnesota), and 1 from Sweden. Imported talent from the north won the Cup for the Lightning. Heck, they even have to import their owner in Detroiter Bill Davidson.

Note: European players are imported no matter what team you are, so I will subtract them out of my equation for the time being.

When a team like the Wings win the Cup, I find it more acceptable that the imported talent is merely across the Detroit River. In addition, the city of Detroit produces its own NHL talent (Michigan: 15 NHL players), so it's not like Detroit is only importing players for its team. If you take from The Game, you must give, and that means produce NHL talent.

And something about hockey reminds me of ice. Wait, the game is played on a rink of ice, something that is meteorologically impossible in tropical locations. The simple fact that Floridian kids aren't able to go to the local pond and skate hurts the chances of the Sunshine State ever becoming a significant producer of NHL talent. It's kind of like expecting Canadians to become world-class surfers and compete with Hawaiians and Californians. And would it really make sense for Canada to organize its own surfing league and import southern talent? The culture of certain regions of the United States just doesn't fit ice-sports, just as Canadian culture doesn't fit surfing. Yet Gary Bettman is attempting what appears to be the impossible, thinking that the imported ice will never melt in the South. I'm no pessimist, but I'm starting to see slush...

Rat Race

Sure, the 1996 Florida Panthers made the Stanley Cup Finals, and even though they were swept by the Avs in 4 games, it seemed like a hockey craze began in Miami. The whole throwing the rats on the ice bit was a play on the Wings' tradition of throwing the octopus. It looked like the state of hockey was strong in Miami. Wrong. When the team slumped in seasons after, the bandwagons of fans left the Panthers. And with the Tampa Bay Lightning victorious as Stanley Cup champions, look for the same to happen to them if the 2004-2005 season proves a bust. Interest is quickly lost in these southern expansion teams, a volatility that may end up sending these businesses down the tubes. It is more of a fad than a fabric of their culture. Remember Beanie Babies?

Take, but not Give

The idea that the state of Florida is mooching the hockey talent of the north without producing any of its own talent is a sticking point for me. While I will give the southern states some time, as the impact of the expansion teams hits, I do expect a reflexive participation in the game. To be in good standing with the game, these new enclaves of hockey must work harder at getting minor league teams going and making their own impact on the game. If the fans take The Game solely as entertainment, and the kids aren't emulating their hockey heroes on the local rink, hockey is not doing well down south.

If hockey is going to become bigger in the United States, particularly in certain states like Florida, more talent has to be produced at home. For perspective, all areas of the United States are way behind these foreign countries in producing talent. But in comparing production from hotbeds like Michigan, Massachusetts, New York, and Minnesota to these other states, I find myself dissatisfied. Now I'm not saying at all that I'm against European or Canadian players, these are some of the best players in the league and the NHL couldn't function without them. With that said, and considering that 24 NHL teams have homes in the States, I think it'd be positive for more players to come from the United States. Interest in hockey at all levels, not only NHL, but pee-wee, minor league, and NCAA, will get the gears rolling on more talent production in the States.

In fact, it almost seems like there are more teams located in the United States where hockey isn't produced than where it is. Here's an objective list of producers and non-producers for states that have a current NHL team:

Producers (5+ current NHL players)
New York - Sabres, Rangers, Islanders - (15)
Massachusetts - Bruins - (21)
Michigan - Red Wings - (15)
Minnesota - Wild - (19)

Non Producers (<5)
Pennsylvania - Penguins, Flyers - (1)
New Jersey - Devils -(2)
Florida - Panthers, Lightning - (1)
Washington DC - Capitals - (1)
Missouri - Blues - (1)
Tennessee - Predators - (0)
Ohio - Blue Jackets - (4)
Illinois - Blackhawks - (4)
Colorado - Avalanche - (2)
California - Mighty Ducks, Kings, Sharks - (3)
Texas - Stars - (1)
Arizona - Coyotes - (0)
Carolinas - Hurricanes - (0)
Georgia - Thrashers - (0)

Among the non-producers, I'll give a temporary pardon to states that have only recently received the game: Arizona, Texas, Florida, Tennessee, Georgia, Carolinas. But this pardon is only on the condition that the fans in these states not only support their NHL teams but a grassroots effort to get hockey going on lower levels of the playing field. This is how talent is produced.

Clearly, the hotbed of NHL talent in the United States is coming from a swath of states in New England and the Midwest. This is partially because of the weather conditions of the region, but also because Canada lies close to the north and Original Six cities of Detroit, Chicago, Boston, New York were where the league started in 1926.

Now, I don't ever expect Florida, or any other hockey-new states, to become Ontario's or Michigan's of hockey production. I understand the constraints of their weather patterns, and how the culture of the South works against them playing the "Yankees' game." I would just like to see these states work at increasing their NHL talent, because it is their responsibility to The Game to produce talent if they are importing it. To be truly successful in the South, NHL teams must transcend their business as entertainment and become a part of Southern culture.

Where Minor League Hockey Players Come From

2006-02-28T20:58:00.000-08:00

This is intended to be a sort of follow up to my original piece, Where NHL Players Come From. The whole idea of the follow up is that I have received a lot of responses to the tune of "My state has all these minor league programs, so you can't say there is no grassroots talent production going on." The assumption is that these minor league players are not imported talent, but rather local hot spots of hockey production that exist in the South. I will analyze the rosters of southern teams in the five leagues which the NHL recognizes as "Minor Professional Hockey" Leagues: SEHL (4 teams), AHL (2 teams), ECHL (15 teams), UHL (2 teams), and CHL (11 teams).

Disclaimer: The following are lists of the places of origin for all current minor league players whose team is located in the South, based on the active rosters from their respective organizations as of 7/9/04. This data is intended to give a general idea of where players are coming from. I do not vouch for the numbers to be precisely accurate, as some players were not on the active rosters when I researched the subject, and I did not feel the need to search these players out individually. In addition, a few obscure players had no birthplace listed. The purpose is to show that, even if strong minor league programs exist in the South, the majority of participating players were outsourced from the North.

SEHL (4 teams)

Canada

Ontario: 25
British Columbia: 4
Nova Scotia: 3
Alberta: 2
Saskatchewan: 2
Quebec: 2
Manitoba: 1
New Brunswick: 1

Total Canada: 40

United States

Massachusetts: 5
New York: 5
Pennsylvania: 4
Michigan: 4
New Jersey: 3
Illinois: 3
Connecticut: 2
Washington: 2
Ohio: 2
Minnesota: 2
Virginia: 1
Wisconsin: 1
New Hampshire: 1

Total United States: 35

Europe/Other

Czech Rep: 3
Slovakia: 2
Switzerland: 1

Total Europe/Other: 6
Total SEHL Players Documented: 81

SEHL Percentages:

Canada: 49.4%
United States: 43.2%
Europe/Other: 7.4%

[Cape Fear FireAntz, Huntsville Channel Cats, Knoxville Ice Bears, Winston-Salem T-Birds]

AHL (2 teams)

Canada

British Columbia: 8
Alberta: 6
Ontario: 5
Saskatchewan: 4
Quebec: 3
Manitoba: 3
Newfoundland: 1

Total Canada: 30

United States

Massachusetts: 3
New York: 2
Michigan: 1
Illinois: 1
Minnesota: 1

Total United States: 8

Europe/Other

Czech Rep: 3
Sweden: 3
Russia: 2
Ukraine: 1
Finland: 1
France: 1
Kazakhstan: 1
Austria: 1

Total Europe/Other: 13
Total AHL Players Documented: 51

AHL Percentages:

Canada: 58.8%
United States: 15.7%
Europe/Other: 25.5%

[Norfolk Admirals, Houston Aeros]

ECHL(15 teams)

Canada

Ontario: 79
Alberta: 27
Quebec: 22
Saskatchewan: 19
British Columbia: 17
Manitoba: 10
New Brunswick: 2
Nova Scotia: 1
Newfoundland: 1

Total Canada: 178

United States

Minnesota: 20
Michigan: 17
Massachusetts: 16
New York: 11
Illinois: 8
Pennsylvania: 4
Wisconsin: 4
New Jersey: 2
Connecticut: 2
Washington: 2
Ohio: 2
New Hampshire: 2
Rhode Island: 2
Oregon: 1
California: 1
Maryland: 1
Nebraska: 1
Wyoming: 1
North Dakota: 1

Total United States: 98

Europe/Other

Ukraine: 5
Czech Rep: 3
Japan: 2
Latvia: 2
Russia: 2
Sweden: 2
Slovakia: 1
Finland: 1
Kazakhstan: 1

Total Europe/Other: 19
Total ECHL Players Documented: 295

ECHL Percentages:

Canada: 60.3%
United States: 33.2%
Europe/Other: 6.4%

[Augusta Lynx, Charlotte Checkers, Columbia Inferno, Florida Everblades, Greensboro Generals, Gwinnett Gladiators, Greenville Grrrowl, Louisiana IceGators, Mississippi Sea Wolves, Pee Dee Pride, Pensacola Ice Pilots, Roanoke Express, South Carolina Stingrays, Texas Wildcatters, Wheeling Nailers]

CHL(11 teams)

Canada

Ontario: 54
Alberta: 22
Quebec: 13
British Columbia: 9
Saskatchewan: 8
Manitoba: 4
Nova Scotia: 2
Prince Edward Island: 2
New Brunswick: 1
Newfoundland: 1
Northwest Territories: 1

Total Canada: 117

United States

Michigan: 6
Illinois: 4
Minnesota: 3
Massachusetts: 2
New York: 2
Wisconsin: 2
Pennsylvania: 1
Connecticut: 1
Ohio: 1
Rhode Island: 1
North Dakota: 1
Oklahoma: 1
Utah: 1

Total United States: 26

Europe/Other

Slovakia: 3
Czech Rep: 2
Sweden: 1
Kazakhstan: 1
Slovenia: 1

Total Europe/Other: 8
Total CHL Players Documented: 151

CHL Percentages:

Canada: 77.5%
United States: 17.2%
Europe/Other: 5.3%

[Bossier-Shreveport Mudbugs, Fort Worth Brahmas, Memphis RiverKings, Austin Ice Bats, Corpus Christi Rayz, Laredo Bucks, Rio Grande Valley Killer Bees, Amarillo Gorillas, Lubbock Cotton Kings, Odessa Jackalopes, San Angelo Saints]

UHL (2 teams)

Canada

Ontario: 11
Quebec: 8
Manitoba: 4
British Columbia: 3
Saskatchewan: 3
Alberta: 2
New Brunswick: 2
Prince Edward Island: 1

Total Canada: 34

United States

Minnesota: 3
Michigan: 2
Massachusetts: 1
Illinois: 1
Alaska: 1
Connecticut: 1
New Hampshire: 1

Total United States: 10

Europe/Other

None

Total Europe/Other: 0
Total UHL Players Documented: 44

UHL Percentages:

Canada: 77.3%
United States: 22.7%
Europe/Other: 0%

[Missouri River Otters, Richmond RiverDogs]

Analysis

As seen in the data, only one player, goalie Adam Barbour, was born in the region covered by the SEHL (Fairfax, Virginia). Barbour played four years of college hockey for the University of Delaware, then for the Northern Michigan Predators, and, finally, the SEHL. Barbour is my only documented southern-born player playing for a southern team in one of the five minor hockey leagues. That's 34 teams and 622 players documented, and only one playing in the region in which he was born. The sad truth about the outsourcing of hockey in the South.

There are few European/Other players in the minor leagues simply because players from overseas tend to play in their own countries' minors before jumping to the NHL, due to the strength of tier leagues in places like Sweden, Finland, Russia, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. As the strength of the minor leagues increase, so does the likelihood that the players were born in Europe/Other, for example, the AHL (25.5%) versus the ECHL (6.4%).

The overall trend I expected is shown: despite the ability to boast about minor league systems in their backyard, the South still lacks the solid production of talent, whether NHL or even minor league. Sure, having a strong minor league system is a step in the right direction, but their only "local" talent is in Canadian/Northern born and grown talent, outsourced to fill the void in hockey talent in the South. I'd like to see the few Dan Hinote's of the South foster their careers below the Mason-Dixon, as well as a significant increase in hockey production in the South. I'd say it's reasonable to have more than one local boy playing for your southern minor league teams.

Detroit Red Wings Draft Success: 1963-2002

2006-02-28T20:57:00.000-08:00

This is a follow-up to my original article, "Draft Success of all Teams in NHL History: 1963-2002." I will make an in-depth analysis of the draft history of the Detroit Red Wings, highlighting the best and worst draft picks/years. In my league-wide draft study, I used games played in the NHL by each teams' draftees as the basis of draft success. While this method was not fool-proof, I saw it as a great way to measure a team's draft success and overall draft instinct in picking players who actually make the big leagues, whether or not with the team that drafted them. It was meant to show a team's affinity to draft future NHL players.

In this Red Wings draft analysis, I will use a variety of variables to measure the Wings' best and worst drafting years, namely regular season games played in the NHL, goals, assists, points, and penalty minutes. For goalies, I will use games played, career goals against average, minutes played, and save percentage (whenever possible). The save percentage statistic has only been kept since the 1976-77 season, and, even after that point, there are many missing numbers. Hockey fans generally give more credence to save percentage over goals against average.

I used HockeyDB and hockeygoalies.org for my data. I also used the hockey statistics database of hockeyDB, downloadable here. My hope is to show why the Wings rank 10/31 in my overall franchise ranking:

10. Detroit Red Wings (1963-2004): 141/372 [37.9%] made NHL, 125.8 average games played [46,801 total games] - 40 draft years, 3.5 NHL players/draft - 3 Stanley Cups

Red Wings Draft History

1963
2 L Pete Mahovlich - 884 games, 288 goals, 485 assists, 773 points, 916 PIM
8 Bill Cosburn - no NHL experience
totals: 2 players, 884 games, 288 goals, 485 assists, 773 points, 916 PIM
averages: 442 games, 144 goals, 242.5 assists, 386.5 points, 458 PIM per draftee, .87 pts/game

1964
1 Claude Gauthier - no NHL experience
7 L Brian Watts - 4 games, 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points, 0 PIM
13 D Ralph Buchanan - no NHL experience
19 C Rene LeClerc - 87 games, 10 goals, 11 assists, 21 points, 105 PIM
totals: 4 players, 91 games, 10 goals, 11 assists, 21 points, 105 PIM
averages: 22.75 games, 2.5 goals, 2.75 assists, 5.25 points, 26.25 PIM per draftee, .23 pts/game

1965
3 George Forgie - no NHL experience
8 R Bob Birdsell - no NHL experience
totals: 2 players, 0 games, 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points, 0 PIM
averages: 0 games, 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points, 0 PIM per draftee, 0 pts/game

1966
6 R Steve Atkinson - 302 games, 60 goals, 51 assists, 111 points, 104 PIM
12 D Jim Whittaker - no NHL experience
18 D Lee Carpenter - no NHL experience
24 G Grant Cole - no NHL experience
totals: 4 players, 302 games, 60 goals, 51 assists, 111 points, 104 PIM
averages: 75.5 games, 15 goals, 12.75 assists, 27.75 points, 26 PIM per draftee, .37 pts/game

1967
9 Ron Barkwell - no NHL experience
17 C Al Karlander - 212 games, 36 goals, 56 assists, 92 points, 70 PIM
totals: 2 players, 212 games, 36 goals, 56 assists, 92 points, 70 PIM
averages: 106 games, 18 goals, 28 assists, 46 points, 35 PIM per draftee, .43 pts/game

1968
11 R Steve Andrascik - no NHL experience
17 R Herb Boxer - no NHL experience
totals: 2 players, 0 games, 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points, 0 PIM
averages: 0 games, 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points, 0 PIM per draftee, 0 pts/game

1969
10 G Jim Rutherford - 457 games, 25895 minutes, 3.65 GAA, 15 assists, 62 PIM
21 L Ron Garwasiuk - no NHL experience
33 C Wayne Hawrysh - no NHL experience
45 Wayne Chernecki - no NHL experience
57 D Wally Olds - no NHL experience
totals: 5 players, 457 games, 0 goals, 15 assists, 15 points, 62 PIM, 457 goalie games, 25895 minutes, 3.65 GAA
averages: 91.4 games, 0 goals, 3 assists, 3 points, 12.4 PIM per draftee, .03 pts/game

1970
12 D Serge Lajeunesse - 103 games, 1 goals, 4 assists, 5 points, 103 PIM
26 L Bob Guindon - 6 games, 0 goals, 1 assists, 1 points, 0 PIM
40 L Yvon Lambert - 683 games, 206 goals, 273 assists, 479 points, 340 PIM
54 Tom Johnston - no NHL experience
68 D Tom Mellor - 26 games, 2 goals, 4 assists, 6 points, 25 PIM
82 C Bernie MacNeil - 4 games, 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points, 0 PIM
95 Ed Hays - no NHL experience
totals: 7 players, 822 games, 209 goals, 282 assists, 491 points, 468 PIM
averages: 117.43 games, 29.86 goals, 40.29 assists, 70.14 points, 66.86 PIM per draftee, .60 pts/game

1971
2 F Marcel Dionne - 1348 games, 731 goals, 1040 assists, 1771 points, 600 PIM
16 C Henry Boucha - 247 games, 53 goals, 49 assists, 102 points, 157 PIM
44 G George Hulme - no NHL experience
58 R Earl Anderson - 109 games, 19 goals, 19 assists, 38 points, 22 PIM
72 D Charlie Shaw - no NHL experience
86 D Jim Nahrgang - 57 games, 5 goals, 12 assists, 17 points, 34 PIM
100 D Bob Boyd - no NHL experience
totals: 7 players, 1761 games, 808 goals, 1120 assists, 1928 points, 813 PIM
averages: 251.57 games, 115.43 goals, 160 assists, 275.43 points, 116.14 PIM per draftee, 1.09 pts/game

1972
26 L Pierre Guite - no NHL experience
42 R Bob Krieger - no NHL experience
58 L Danny Gruen - 49 games, 9 goals, 13 assists, 22 points, 19 PIM
74 L Dennis Johnson - no NHL experience
90 Bill Miller - no NHL experience
106 G Glen Seperich - no NHL experience
122 D Mike Ford - no NHL experience
138 D George Kuzmicz - no NHL experience
150 Dave Arundel - no NHL experience
totals: 9 players, 49 games, 9 goals, 13 assists, 22 points, 19 PIM
averages: 5.44 games, 1 goals, 1.44 assists, 2.44 points, 2.11 PIM per draftee, .45 pts/game

1973
11 G Terry Richardson - 20 games, 906 minutes, 5.63 GAA, 1 assist, 6 PIM
39 C Nelson Pyatt - 296 games, 71 goals, 63 assists, 134 points, 69 PIM
43 F Robbie Neale - no NHL experience
59 D Mike Korney - 77 games, 9 goals, 10 assists, 19 points, 59 PIM
75 F Blair Stewart - 229 games, 34 goals, 44 assists, 78 points, 326 PIM
91 Glen Cickello - no NHL experience
107 Brian Middleton - no NHL experience
118 C Dennis Polonich - 390 games, 59 goals, 82 assists, 141 points, 1242 PIM
123 F George Lyle - 99 games, 24 goals, 38 assists, 62 points, 51 PIM
135 Dennis O'Brien - no NHL experience
138 Tom Newman - no NHL experience
139 Ray Bibeau - no NHL experience
151 G Kevin Neville - no NHL experience
154 D Ken Gibb - no NHL experience
155 Mitch Brandt - no NHL experience
totals: 15 players, 1111 games, 197 goals, 238 assists, 435 points, 1753 PIM, 20 goalie games, 906 minutes, 5.63 GAA
averages: 74.07 games, 13.13 goals, 15.87 assists, 29 points, 116.87 PIM per draftee, .39 pts/game

1974
9 F Bill Lochead - 330 games, 69 goals, 62 assists, 131 points, 180 PIM
44 Dan Mandryk - no NHL experience
45 L Bill Evo - no NHL experience
63 R Michel Bergeron - 229 games, 80 goals, 58 assists, 138 points, 165 PIM
81 D John Taft - 15 games, 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points, 4 PIM
99 F Don Dufek - no NHL experience
117 F Jack Carlson - 236 games, 30 goals, 15 assists, 45 points, 417 PIM
134 D Greg Steel - no NHL experience
151 D Glen McLeod - no NHL experience
totals: 9 players, 810 games, 179 goals, 137 assists, 316 points, 766 PIM
averages: 90 games, 19.89 goals, 15.22 assists, 35.11 points, 85.11 PIM per draftee, .39 pts/game

1975
5 D Rick Lapointe - 664 games, 44 goals, 176 assists, 220 points, 831 PIM
23 D Jerry Rollins - no NHL experience
37 D Al Cameron - 282 games, 11 goals, 44 assists, 55 points, 356 PIM
45 Blair Davidson - no NHL experience
50 C Clark Hamilton - no NHL experience
59 D Mike Wirachowsky - no NHL experience
77 C Mike Wong - 22 games, 1 goals, 1 assists, 2 points, 12 PIM
95 D Mike Harazny - no NHL experience
113 C Jean-Luc Phaneuf - no NHL experience
131 F Steve Carlson - 52 games, 9 goals, 12 assists, 21 points, 23 PIM
148 Gary Vaughan - no NHL experience
164 Jean Thibodeau - no NHL experience
176 Dave Hanson - no NHL experience
178 Robin Larson - no NHL experience
totals: 14 players, 1020 games, 65 goals, 233 assists, 298 points, 1222 PIM
averages: 72.86 games, 4.64 goals, 16.64 assists, 21.29 points, 87.29 PIM per draftee, .29 pts/game

1976
4 Fred Williams - 44 games, 2 goals, 5 assists, 7 points, 10 PIM
22 D Reed Larson - 904 games, 222 goals, 463 assists, 685 points, 1391 PIM
40 C Fred Berry - 3 games, o goals, 0 assists, 0 points, 0 PIM
58 R Kevin Schamehorn - 10 games, 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points, 17 PIM
76 D Dwight Schofield - 211 games, 8 goals, 22 assists, 30 points, 631 PIM
94 D Tony Horvath - no NHL experience
111 Fern LeBlanc - 34 games, 5 goals, 6 assists, 11 points, 0 PIM
120 G Claude Legris - 4 games, 91 minutes, 2.64 GAA
totals: 8 players, 1210 games, 237 goals, 496 assists, 733 points, 2049 PIM, 4 goalie games, 91 minutes, 2.64 GAA
averages: 151.25 games, 29.625 goals, 62 assists, 91.63 points, 256.13 PIM per draftee, .61 pts/game

1977
1 F Dale McCourt - 532 games, 194 goals, 284 assists, 478 points, 124 PIM
37 Rick Vasko - 31 games, 3 goals, 7 assists, 10 points, 29 PIM
55 D John Hilworth - 57 games, 1 goals, 1 assists, 2 points, 89 PIM
73 D Jim Korn - 596 games, 66 goals, 122 assists, 188 points, 1801 PIM
91 G Jim Baxter - no NHL experience
109 W Randy Wilson - no NHL experience
125 C Ray Roy - no NHL experience
141 C Kip Churchill - no NHL experience
155 Lance Gatoni - no NHL experience
163 C Rob Plumb - 14 games, 3 goals, 2 assists, 5 points, 2 PIM
170 Alain Belanger - no NHL experience
175 L Dean Willers - no NHL experience
178 C Roland Cloutier - 34 games, 8 goals, 9 assists, 17 points, 2 PIM
181 Ed Hill - no NHL experience
184 L Val James - 11 games, 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points, 30 PIM
185 R Grant Morin - no NHL experience
totals: 16 players, 1275 games, 275 goals, 425 assists, 700 points, 2077 PIM
averages: 79.69 games, 17.19 goals, 26.56 assists, 43.75 points, 129.81 PIM per draftee, .55 pts/game

1978
9 D Willie Huber - 655 games, 104 goals, 217 assists, 321 points, 950 PIM
12 F Brent Peterson - 620 games, 72 goals, 141 assists, 213 points, 484 PIM
28 L Glenn Hicks - 108 games, 6 goals, 12 assists, 18 points, 127 PIM
31 G Al Jensen - 179 games, 9974 minutes, 3.35 GAA, 4 assists, 44 PIM
53 C Doug Derkson - no NHL experience
62 Bjorn Skaare - 1 games, 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points, 0 PIM
78 L Ted Nolan - 78 games, 6 goals, 16 assists, 22 points, 105 PIM
95 C Sylvain Locas - no NHL experience
112 L Wes George - no NHL experience
129 D John Barrett - 488 games, 20 goals, 77 assists, 97 points, 604 PIM
146 Jim Malazdrewicz - no NHL experience
163 Geoff Shaw - no NHL experience
178 Carl Van Harrewyn - no NHL experience
194 Ladislav Svozil - no NHL experience
208 Tom Bailey - no NHL experience
219 G Larry Lozinski - 30 games, 1459 minutes, 4.32 GAA, 1 assist
224 L Randy Betty - no NHL experience
226 Brian Crawley - no NHL experience
228 Doug Feasby - no NHL experience
totals: 19 players, 2159 games, 208 goals, 468 assists, 676 points, 2314 PIM, 209 goalie games, 11433 minutes, 3.35 + 4.32 GAA
averages: 113.63 games, 10.95 goals, 24.63 assists, 35.58 points, 121.79 PIM per draftee, .31 pts/game

1979
3 F Mike Foligno - 1018 games, 355 goals, 372 assists, 727 points, 2049 PIM
45 R Jody Gage - 68 games, 14 goals, 15 assists, 29 points, 26 PIM
46 Boris Fistric - no NHL experience
66 F John Ogrodnick - 928 games, 402 goals, 425 assists, 827 points, 260 PIM
87 L Joe Paterson - 291 games, 19 goals, 37 assists, 56 points, 831 PIM
108 L Carmine Cirella - no NHL experience
totals: 6 players, 2305 games, 790 goals, 849 assists, 1639 points, 3166 PIM
averages: 384.17 games, 131.67 goals, 141.5 assists, 273.17 points, 527.67 PIM per draftee, .71 pts/game

1980
11 R Mike Blaisdell - 343 games, 70 goals, 84 assists, 154 points, 166 PIM
46 L Mark Osborne - 919 games, 212 goals, 320 assists, 532 points, 1152 PIM
88 Mike Corrigan - no NHL experience
109 C Wayne Crawford - no NHL experience
130 Mike Braun - no NHL experience
151 D John Beukeboom - no NHL experience
172 Dave Miles - no NHL experience
193 R Brian Rorabeck - no NHL experience
totals: 8 players, 1262 games, 282 goals, 404 assists, 686 points, 1318 PIM
averages: 157.75 games, 35.25 goals, 50.5 assists, 85.75 points, 164.75 PIM per draftee, .54 pts/game

1981
23 F Claude Loiselle - 616 games, 92 goals, 117 assists, 209 points, 1149 PIM
44 G Corrado Micalef - 113 games, 5794 minutes, 4.24 GAA, 6 assists, 43 PIM
86 D Larry Trader - 91 games, 5 goals, 13 assists, 18 points, 74 PIM
107 L Gerard Gallant - 615 games, 211 goals, 269 assists, 480 points, 1677 PIM
128 G Greg Stefan - 299 games, 16333 minutes, 3.92 GAA, 15 assists, 200 PIM
149 D Rick Zombo - 652 games, 24 goals, 130 assists, 154 points, 728 PIM
170 Don Leblanc - no NHL experience
191 D Robert Nordmark - 236 games, 13 goals, 70 assists, 83 points, 254 PIM
totals: 8 players, 2622 games, 345 goals, 614 assists, 959 points, 4082 PIM, 412 goalie games, 22127 minutes, 4.24 + 3.92 GAA
averages: 327.75 games, 43.13 goals, 76.75 assists, 119.88 points, 510.25 PIM per draftee, .37 pts/game

1982
17 L Murray Craven - 1071 games, 266 goals, 493 assists, 759 points, 524 PIM
23 R Yves Courteau - 22 games, 2 goals, 5 assists, 7 points, 4 PIM
44 F Carmine Vani - no NHL experience
66 C Craig Coxe - 235 games, 14 goals, 31 assists, 45 points, 713 PIM
86 D Brad Shaw - 377 games, 22 goals, 137 assists, 159 points, 208 PIM
107 R Claude Vilgrain - 89 games, 21 goals, 32 assists, 53 points, 78 PIM
128 Greg Hudas - no NHL experience
149 Pat Lahey - no NHL experience
170 Gary Cullen - no NHL experience
191 Brent Meckling - no NHL experience
212 F Mike Stern - no NHL experience
233 Shaun Reagan - no NHL experience
totals: 12 players, 1794 games, 325 goals, 698 assists, 1023 points, 1527 PIM
averages: 149.5 games, 27.08 goals, 58.17 assists, 85.25 points, 127.25 PIM per draftee, .57 pts/game

1983
4 C Steve Yzerman - 1453 games, 678 goals, 1043 assists, 1721 points, 906 PIM
25 R Lane Lambert - 283 games, 58 goals, 67 assists, 125 points, 521 PIM
46 L Bob Probert - 935 games, 163 goals, 221 assists, 384 points, 3300 PIM
68 D Dave Korol - no NHL experience
86 L Petr Klima - 786 games, 313 goals, 260 assists, 573 points, 671 PIM
88 R Joey Kocur - 820 games, 80 goals, 82 assists, 162 points, 2519 PIM
106 G Chris Pusey - 1 games, 40 minutes, 4.50 GAA
126 Bob Pierson - no NHL experience
146 Craig Butz - no NHL experience
166 D Dave Sikorski - no NHL experience
186 L Stu Grimson - 729 games, 17 goals, 22 assists, 39 points, 2113 PIM
206 Jeff Frank - no NHL experience
226 Chuck Chiatto - no NHL experience
totals: 13 players, 5007 games, 1309 goals, 1695 assists, 3004 points, 10030 PIM, 1 goalie games, 40 minutes, 4.50 GAA
averages: 385.15 games, 100.69 goals, 130.38 assists, 231.08 points, 771.54 PIM per draftee, .60 pts/game

1984
7 L Shawn Burr - 878 games, 181 goals, 259 assists, 440 points, 1069 PIM
28 D Doug Houda - 561 games, 19 goals, 63 assists, 82 points, 1104 PIM
49 D Milan Chalupa - 12 games, 0 goals, 5 assists, 5 points, 6 PIM
91 F Mats Lundstrom - no NHL experience
112 G Randy Hansch - no NHL experience
133 D Stefan Larsson - no NHL experience
152 F Lars Karlsson - no NHL experience
154 F Urban Nordin - no NHL experience
175 F Bill Shibicky - no NHL experience
195 D Jay Rose - no NHL experience
216 F Tim Kaiser - no NHL experience
236 F Tom Nickolau - no NHL experience
totals: 12 players, 1451 games, 200 goals, 327 assists, 527 points, 2179 PIM
averages: 120.92 games, 16.67 goals, 27.25 assists, 43.92 points, 181.58 PIM per draftee, .36 pts/game

1985
8 R Brent Fedyk - 470 games, 97 goals, 112 assists, 209 points, 308 PIM
29 D Jeff Sharples - 105 games, 14 goals, 35 assists, 49 points, 70 PIM
50 D Steve Chiasson - 751 games, 93 goals, 305 assists, 398 points, 1107 PIM
71 G Mark Gowens - no NHL experience
92 D Chris Luongo - 218 games, 8 goals, 23 assists, 31 points, 176 PIM
113 R Randy McKay - 932 games, 162 goals, 201 assists, 363 points, 1731 PIM
134 Thomas Bjuhr - no NHL experience
155 Mike Luckraft - no NHL experience
176 D Rob Schena - no NHL experience
197 D Erik Hamalainen - no NHL experience
218 C Bo Svanberg - no NHL experience
239 D Mikael Lindman - no NHL experience
totals: 12 players, 2476 games, 374 goals, 676 assists, 1050 points, 3392 PIM
averages: 206.33 games, 31.17 goals, 56.33 assists, 87.5 points, 282.67 PIM per draftee, .42 pts/game

1986
1 R Joe Murphy - 779 games, 233 goals, 295 assists, 528 points, 810 PIM
22 L Adam Graves - 1152 games, 329 goals, 287 assists, 616 points, 1224 PIM
43 D Derek Mayer - 17 games, 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points, 8 PIM
64 G Tim Cheveldae - 340 games, 19171 minutes, 3.49 GAA, .883 SV%, 16 assists, 18 PIM
85 L Johan Garpenlov - 609 games, 114 goals, 196 assists, 310 points, 276 PIM
106 Jay Stark - no NHL experience
127 D Par Djoos - 82 games, 2 goals, 31 assists, 33 points, 58 PIM
148 D Dean Morton - 1 games, 1 goals, 0 assists, 1 points, 2 PIM
169 R Marc Potvin - 121 games, 3 goals, 5 assists, 8 points, 456 PIM
190 G Scott King - 2 games, 61 minutes, 2.95 GAA, .813 SV%,
211 L Tom Bissett - 5 games, 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points, 0 PIM
232 Peter Ekroth - no NHL experience
totals: 12 players, 3108 games, 684 goals, 832 assists, 1516 points, 2852 PIM, 342 goalie games, 19232 minutes, 3.49 + 2.95 GAA, .883 + .813 SV%
averages: 259 games, 57 goals, 69.33 assists, 126.33 points, 237.67 PIM per draftee, .49 pts/game

1987
11 D Yves Racine - 508 games, 37 goals, 194 assists, 231 points, 439 PIM
32 D Gord Kruppke - 23 games, 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points, 32 PIM
41 D Bob Wilkie - 18 games, 2 goals, 5 assists, 7 points, 10 PIM
52 C Dennis Holland - no NHL experience
74 G Mark Reimer - no NHL experience
95 Radomir Brazda - no NHL experience
116 Sean Clifford - no NHL experience
137 L Mike Gober - no NHL experience
158 L Kevin Scott - no NHL experience
179 Mikko Haapakoski - no NHL experience
200 D Darin Banister - no NHL experience
221 Craig Quinlan - no NHL experience
242 Tomas Jansson - no NHL experience
totals: 13 players, 549 games, 39 goals, 199 assists, 238 points, 481 PIM
averages: 42.23 games, 3 goals, 15.31 assists, 18.31 points, 37 PIM per draftee, .43 pts/game

1988
17 R Kory Kocur - no NHL experience
38 D Serge Anglehart - no NHL experience
47 D Guy Dupuis - no NHL experience
59 R Petr Hrbek - no NHL experience
80 R Sheldon Kennedy - 310 games, 49 goals, 58 assists, 107 points, 233 PIM
143 R Kelly Hurd - no NHL experience
164 Brian McCormack - no NHL experience
185 D Jody Praznik - no NHL experience
206 C Glen Goodall - no NHL experience
227 R Darren Colbourne - no NHL experience
248 C Don Stone - no NHL experience
totals: 11 players, 310 games, 49 goals, 58 assists, 107 points, 233 PIM
averages: 28.18 games, 4.45 goals, 5.27 assists, 9.73 points, 21.18 PIM per draftee, .35 pts/game

1989
11 C Mike Sillinger - 829 games, 166 goals, 232 assists, 398 points, 507 PIM
32 D Bob Boughner - 589 games, 14 goals, 51 assists, 65 points, 1328 PIM
53 D Nicklas Lidstrom - 1016 games, 173 goals, 553 assists, 726 points, 276 PIM
74 C Sergei Fedorov - 988 games, 431 goals, 588 assists, 1019 points, 629 PIM
95 C Shawn McCosh - 9 games, 1 goals, 0 assists, 1 points, 6 PIM
116 R Dallas Drake - 822 games, 166 goals, 267 assists, 433 points, 747 PIM
137 D Scott Zygulski - no NHL experience
158 D Andy Suhy - no NHL experience
179 Bob Jones - no NHL experience
200 D Greg Bignell - no NHL experience
204 L Rick Judson - no NHL experience
221 D Vladimir Konstantinov - 446 games, 47 goals, 127 assists, 174 points, 838 PIM
242 R Joe Frederick - no NHL experience
246 G Jason Glickman - no NHL experience
totals: 14 players, 4699 games, 998 goals, 1818 assists, 2816 points, 4331 PIM
averages: 335.64 games, 71.29 goals, 129.86 assists, 201.14 points, 309.36 PIM per draftee, .60 pts/game

1990
3 C Keith Primeau - 900 games, 265 goals, 347 assists, 612 points, 1535 PIM
45 L Vyacheslav Kozlov - 800 games, 252 goals, 307 assists, 559 points, 532 PIM
66 D Stewart Malgunas - 129 games, 1 goals, 5 assists, 6 points, 144 PIM
87 D Tony Burns - no NHL experience
108 D Claude Barthe - no NHL experience
129 D Jason York - 708 games, 41 goals, 180 assists, 221 points, 589 PIM
150 D Wes McCauley - no NHL experience
171 F Tony Gruba - no NHL experience
192 D Travis Tucker - no NHL experience
213 D Brett Larson - no NHL experience
234 L John Hendry - no NHL experience
totals: 11 players, 2537 games, 559 goals, 839 assists, 1398 points, 2800 PIM
averages: 230.64 games, 50.82 goals, 76.27 assists, 127.09 points, 254.54 PIM per draftee, .55 pts/game

1991
10 R Martin Lapointe - 757 games, 148 goals, 165 assists, 313 points, 1143 PIM
32 D Jamie Pushor - 517 games, 13 goals, 44 assists, 57 points, 648 PIM
54 G Chris Osgood - 568 games, 32604 minutes, 2.44 GAA, .907 SV%, 1 goal, 12 assists, 111 PIM
76 R Mike Knuble - 510 games, 101 goals, 107 assists, 208 points, 224 PIM
98 D Dmitri Motkov - no NHL experience
142 D Igor Malykhin - no NHL experience
186 C Jim Bermingham - no NHL experience
208 C Jason Firth - no NHL experience
230 Bart Turner - no NHL experience
252 C Andrew Miller - no NHL experience
totals: 10 players, 2352 games, 263 goals, 328 assists, 591 points, 2126 PIM, 568 goalie games, 32604 minutes, 2.44 GAA, .907 SV%
averages: 235.2 games, 26.3 goals, 32.8 assists, 59.1 points, 212.6 PIM per draftee, .25 pts/game

1992
22 L Curtis Bowen - no NHL experience
46 R Darren McCarty - 643 games, 119 goals, 154 assists, 273 points, 1275 PIM
70 C Sylvain Cloutier - 7 games, 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points, 0 PIM
118 C Mike Sullivan - no NHL experience
142 R Jason MacDonald - 4 games, 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points, 19 PIM
166 G Greg Scott - no NHL experience
183 D Justin Krall - no NHL experience
189 G C.J. Denomme - no NHL experience
214 Jeff Walker - no NHL experience
238 D Dan McGillis - 607 games, 56 goals, 176 assists, 232 points, 534 PIM
262 G Ryan Bach - 3 games, 108 minutes, 4.44 GAA, .879 SV%
totals: 11 players, 1264 games, 175 goals, 330 assists, 505 points, 1828 PIM, 3 goalie games, 108 minutes, 4.44 GAA, .879 SV%
averages: 114.91 games, 15.91 goals, 30 assists, 45.91 points, 166.18 PIM per draftee, .40 pts/game

1993
22 D Anders Eriksson - 412 games, 21 goals, 109 assists, 130 points, 158 PIM
48 D Jon Coleman - no NHL experience
74 C Kevin Hilton - no NHL experience
97 D John Jakopin - 113 games, 1 goals, 6 assists, 7 points, 145 PIM
100 D Benoit Larose - no NHL experience
126 G Norm Maracle - 66 games, 3430 minutes, 3.10 GAA, .897 SV%
152 Tim Spitzig - no NHL experience
178 D Yuri Yuresko - no NHL experience
204 D Vitezslav Skuta - no NHL experience
230 R Ryan Shanahan - no NHL experience
256 G Jamie Kosecki - no NHL experience
282 L Gordy Hunt - no NHL experience
totals: 12 players, 591 games, 22 goals, 115 assists, 137 points, 303 PIM, 66 goalie games, 3430 minutes, 3.10 GAA, .897 SV%
averages: 49.25 games, 1.83 goals, 9.58 assists, 11.42 points, 25.25 PIM per draftee, .23 pts/game

1994
23 D Yan Golubovsky - 56 games, 1 goals, 7 assists, 8 points, 32 PIM
49 R Mathieu Dandenault - 616 games, 48 goals, 101 assists, 149 points, 342 PIM
75 D Sean Gillam - no NHL experience
114 G Frederic Deschenes - no NHL experience
127 D Doug Battaglia - no NHL experience
153 F Pavel Agarkov - no NHL experience
205 G Jason Elliott - no NHL experience
231 C Jeff Mikesch - no NHL experience
257 L Tomas Holmstrom - 541 games, 96 goals, 140 assists, 236 points, 387 PIM
283 L Toivo Suursoo - no NHL experience
totals: 10 players, 1213 games, 145 goals, 248 assists, 393 points, 761 PIM
averages: 121.3 games, 14.5 goals, 24.8 assists, 39.3 points, 76.1 PIM per draftee, .32 pts/game

1995
26 D Maxim Kuznetsov - 136 games, 2 goals, 8 assists, 10 points, 137 PIM
52 L Philippe Audet - 4 games, 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points, 0 PIM
58 C Darryl Laplante - 35 games, 0 goals, 6 assists, 6 points, 10 PIM
104 F Anatoly Ustyugov - no NHL experience
125 D Chad Wilchynski - no NHL experience
126 G Dave Arsenault - no NHL experience
156 C Tyler Perry - no NHL experience
182 R Per Eklund - no NHL experience
208 F Andrei Samokhvalov - no NHL experience
234 L David Engblom - no NHL experience
totals: 10 players, 175 games, 2 goals, 14 assists, 16 points, 147 PIM
averages: 17.5 games, .2 goals, 1.4 assists, 1.6 points, 14.7 PIM per draftee, .09 pts/game

1996
26 D Jesse Wallin - 49 games, 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points, 34 PIM
52 G Aren Miller - no NHL experience
108 L Johan Forsander - no NHL experience
135 G Michal Podolka - no NHL experience
144 L Magnus Nilsson - no NHL experience
162 R Alexandre Jacques - no NHL experience
189 C Colin Beardsmore - no NHL experience
215 R Craig Stahl - no NHL experience
241 Evgeny Afanasiev no NHL experience
totals: 9 players, 49 games, 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points, 34 PIM
averages: 5.44 games, 0 goals, .22 assists, .22 points, 3.78 PIM per draftee, .04 pts/game

1997
49 L Yuri Butsayev - 99 games, 10 goals, 4 assists, 14 points, 28 PIM
76 C Petr Sykora - 2 games, 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points, 0 PIM
102 L Quintin Laing - 3 games, 0 goals, 1 assists, 1 points, 0 PIM
129 D John Wikstrom - no NHL experience
157 R B.J. Young - 1 games, 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points, 0 PIM
186 Mike Laceby - no NHL experience
213 Steve Wilejto - no NHL experience
239 D Greg Willers - no NHL experience
totals: 8 players, 105 games, 10 goals, 5 assists, 15 points, 28 PIM
averages: 13.13 games, 1.25 goals, .63 assists, 1.88 points, 3.5 PIM per draftee, .14 pts/game

1998
25 D Jiri Fischer - 283 games, 8 goals, 44 assists, 52 points, 262 PIM
55 L Ryan Barnes - 2 games, 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points, 0 PIM
56 L Tomek Valtonen - no NHL experience
84 G Jake McCracken - no NHL experience
111 L Brent Hobday - no NHL experience
142 L Calle Steen - no NHL experience
151 L Adam DeLeeuw - no NHL experience
171 C Pavel Datsyuk - 209 games, 53 goals, 101 assists, 154 points, 55 PIM
198 D Jeremy Goetzinger - no NHL experience
226 D David Petrasek - no NHL experience
256 Petja Pietilainen - no NHL experience
totals: 11 players, 494 games, 61 goals, 145 assists, 206 points, 317 PIM
averages: 44.91 games, 5.55 goals, 13.18 assists, 18.73 points, 28.82 PIM per draftee, .42 pts/game

1999
120 L Jari Tolsa - no NHL experience
149 Andrei Maximenko - no NHL experience
181 R Kent McDonell - 32 games, 1 goals, 2 assists, 3 points, 36 PIM
210 L Henrik Zetterberg - 140 games, 37 goals, 50 assists, 87 points, 22 PIM
238 L Anton Borodkin - no NHL experience
266 R Ken Davis - no NHL experience
totals: 6 players, 172 games, 38 goals, 52 assists, 90 points, 58 PIM
averages: 28.67 games, 6.33 goals, 8.67 assists, 15 points, 9.67 PIM per draftee, .52 pts/game

2000
29 D Niklas Kronwall - 20 games, 1 goals, 4 assists, 5 points, 16 PIM
38 C Tomas Kopecky - no NHL experience
102 G Stefan Liv - no NHL experience
127 Dmitri Semenov - no NHL experience
128 D Alexander Seluyanov - no NHL experience
130 R Aaron Van Leusen - no NHL experience
187 C Par Backer - no NHL experience
196 D Paul Ballantyne - no NHL experience
228 Jimmie Svensson - no NHL experience
251 F Todd Jackson - no NHL experience
260 Evgeni Bumagin - no NHL experience
totals: 11 players, 20 games, 1 goals, 4 assists, 5 points, 16 PIM
averages: 1.82 games, .09 goals, .36 assists, .45 points, 1.45 PIM per draftee, .25 pts/game

2001
62 Igor Grigorenko - no NHL experience
121 G Drew MacIntyre - no NHL experience
129 D Miroslav Blatak - no NHL experience
157 R Andreas Jamtin - no NHL experience
195 G Nick Pannoni - no NHL experience
258 D Dmitry Bykov - 71 games, 2 goals, 10 assists, 12 points, 43 PIM
288 D Francois Senez - no NHL experience
totals: 7 players, 71 games, 2 goals, 10 assists, 12 points, 43 PIM
averages: 10.14 games, .29 goals, 1.43 assists, 1.71 points, 6.14 PIM per draftee, .17 pts/game

2002
58 C Jiri Hudler - 12 games, 1 goals, 2 assists, 3 points, 10 PIM
63 C Tomas Fleischmann - no NHL experience
95 Valtteri Filppula - no NHL experience
131 D Johan Berggren - no NHL experience
166 G Logan Koopmans - no NHL experience
197 C Jimmy Cuddihy - no NHL experience
229 L Derek Meech - no NHL experience
260 D Pierre-Olivier Beaulie - no NHL experience
262 L Christian Soderstrom - no NHL experience
291 D Jonathan Ericsson - no NHL experience
totals: 10 players, 12 games, 1 goals, 2 assists, 3 points, 10 PIM
averages: 1.2 games, .1 goals, .2 assists, .3 points, 1 PIM per draftee, .25 pts/game

2003
64 G Jim Howard - no NHL experience
132 D Kyle Quincey - no NHL experience
164 C Ryan Oulahen - no NHL experience
170 R Andreas Sundin - no NHL experience
194 Stefan Blom - no NHL experience
226 L Tomas Kollar - no NHL experience
258 L Vladimir Kutny - no NHL experience
289 Mikael Johansson - no NHL experience
totals: 8 players, 0 games

2004
97 C Johan Franzen - no NHL experience
128 C Evan McGrath - no NHL experience
151 D Siarhei Kolasau - no NHL experience
162 C Tyler Haskins - no NHL experience
192 L Anton Axelsson - no NHL experience
226 R Steve Covington - no NHL experience
257 R Gennady Stolyarov - no NHL experience
290 D Nils Backstrom - no NHL experience
totals: 8 players, 0 games

Totals

*Note: Statistics are not counting 2003, 2004 drafts unless otherwise noted.

Draftees: 372 (1963-2002), 388 (1963-2004)
NHL Players: 141/372 [37.9%]
Games: 46,801 (125.8 average games played/draftee)
Goals: 9255 (24.88 goals/draftee, 231.38 goals/draft)
Assists: 14300 (38.44 assists/draftee, 357.5 assists/draft)
Points: 23555 (63.32 points/draftee, 588.88 points/draft, .5 pts/game)
PIM: 54296 (145.96 PIM/draftee, 1357.4 PIM/draftee)
Total Red Wings Games (1963-2004): 58713 (79.7% via draft)
Total Red Wings Goals (1963-2004): 10730 (86.3% via draft)
Total Red Wings Assists (1963-2004): 17733 (80.6% via draft)
Total Red Wings Points (1963-2004): 28463 (82.8% via draft)
Total Red Wings PIM (1963-2004): 55446 (97.9% via draft)
Total Red Wings +/- (1963-2004): +4789
Total Red Wings Powerplay goals (1963-2004): 2586
Total Red Wings Shorthanded goals (1963-2004): 429
Total Red Wings Shots (1963-2003): 89787
Total Red Wings Goal Percentage (1963-2003): 12.0%
Goalies Drafted: 34
Goalies Made NHL: 13 (38.24% of drafted goalies made NHL)
Goalie Games: 2082 (4.45% of total draftee games)
Minutes: 115866 (3407 minutes/drafted goalie, 8912 minutes/NHL goalie)
GAA: 48.67/13 = 3.74
SV%: (N/A: only viable statistic since 1976-77 season)
Rankings (1963-2002): 10/31 Franchise, 15/41 Clubs, 11/21 Vintage, 5/6 Original Six
Years (1963-2002): 40, 3.5 NHL players/draft
Stanley Cups: 3

Diamonds in the Rough

To be considered a diamond in the rough, the player must be picked in the second half of their respective draft and produce commendable numbers. Note: they don't have to necessarily be a superstar to be considered a "diamond." For example, they could be a 10 karat diamond, a 100 karat diamond, or somewhere in between:

1973: 118 C Dennis Polonich - 390 games, 59 goals, 82 assists, 141 points, 1242 PIM
1978: 129 D John Barrett - 488 games, 20 goals, 77 assists, 97 points, 604 PIM
1981: 128 G Greg Stefan - 299 games, 16333 minutes, 3.92 GAA, 15 assists, 200 PIM
149 D Rick Zombo - 652 games, 24 goals, 130 assists, 154 points, 728 PIM
191 D Robert Nordmark - 236 games, 13 goals, 70 assists, 83 points, 254 PIM
1983: 186 L Stu Grimson - 729 games, 17 goals, 22 assists, 39 points, 2113 PIM
1989: 221 D Vladimir Konstantinov - 446 games, 47 goals, 127 assists, 174 points, 838 PIM
1990: 129 D Jason York - 708 games, 41 goals, 180 assists, 221 points, 589 PIM
1992: 238 D Dan McGillis - 607 games, 56 goals, 176 assists, 232 points, 534 PIM
1994: 257 L Tomas Holmstrom - 541 games, 96 goals, 140 assists, 236 points, 387 PIM
1998: 171 C Pavel Datsyuk - 209 games, 53 goals, 101 assists, 154 points, 55 PIM
1999: 210 L Henrik Zetterberg - 140 games, 37 goals, 50 assists, 87 points, 22 PIM

Bombs

The players that turn out to be busts when picked early in the draft shall be named in this section. I won't go through the first half of the draft and name every player who never made the NHL. Rather, I will pick the most notable disappointments, in the range of picks 1-35:

1964: 1 Claude Gauthier - no NHL experience
1970: 26 L Bob Guindon - 6 games, 0 goals, 1 assists, 1 points, 0 PIM
1972: 26 L Pierre Guite - no NHL experience
1973: 11 G Terry Richardson - 20 games, 906 minutes, 5.63 GAA, 1 assist, 6 PIM
1976: 4 Fred Williams - 44 games, 2 goals, 5 assists, 7 points, 10 PIM
1982: 23 R Yves Courteau - 22 games, 2 goals, 5 assists, 7 points, 4 PIM
1987: 32 D Gord Kruppke - 23 games, 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points, 32 PIM
1988: 17 R Kory Kocur - no NHL experience
1992: 22 L Curtis Bowen - no NHL experience

Best Draft Years

In chronological order, these are the 10 best drafts the Wings have had:

1971
2 F Marcel Dionne - 1348 games, 731 goals, 1040 assists, 1771 points, 600 PIM
16 C Henry Boucha - 247 games, 53 goals, 49 assists, 102 points, 157 PIM
44 G George Hulme - no NHL experience
58 R Earl Anderson - 109 games, 19 goals, 19 assists, 38 points, 22 PIM
72 D Charlie Shaw - no NHL experience
86 D Jim Nahrgang - 57 games, 5 goals, 12 assists, 17 points, 34 PIM
100 D Bob Boyd - no NHL experience
totals: 7 players, 1761 games, 808 goals, 1120 assists, 1928 points, 813 PIM
averages: 251.57 games, 115.43 goals, 160 assists, 275.43 points, 116.14 PIM per draftee, 1.09 pts/game

1978
9 D Willie Huber - 655 games, 104 goals, 217 assists, 321 points, 950 PIM
12 F Brent Peterson - 620 games, 72 goals, 141 assists, 213 points, 484 PIM
28 L Glenn Hicks - 108 games, 6 goals, 12 assists, 18 points, 127 PIM
31 G Al Jensen - 179 games, 9974 minutes, 3.35 GAA, 4 assists, 44 PIM
53 C Doug Derkson - no NHL experience
62 Bjorn Skaare - 1 games, 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points, 0 PIM
78 L Ted Nolan - 78 games, 6 goals, 16 assists, 22 points, 105 PIM
95 C Sylvain Locas - no NHL experience
112 L Wes George - no NHL experience
129 D John Barrett - 488 games, 20 goals, 77 assists, 97 points, 604 PIM
146 Jim Malazdrewicz - no NHL experience
163 Geoff Shaw - no NHL experience
178 Carl Van Harrewyn - no NHL experience
194 Ladislav Svozil - no NHL experience
208 Tom Bailey - no NHL experience
219 G Larry Lozinski - 30 games, 1459 minutes, 4.32 GAA, 1 assist
224 L Randy Betty - no NHL experience
226 Brian Crawley - no NHL experience
228 Doug Feasby - no NHL experience
totals: 19 players, 2159 games, 208 goals, 468 assists, 676 points, 2314 PIM, 209 goalie games, 11433 minutes, 3.35 + 4.32 GAA
averages: 113.63 games, 10.95 goals, 24.63 assists, 35.58 points, 121.79 PIM per draftee, .31 pts/game

1979
3 F Mike Foligno - 1018 games, 355 goals, 372 assists, 727 points, 2049 PIM
45 R Jody Gage - 68 games, 14 goals, 15 assists, 29 points, 26 PIM
46 Boris Fistric - no NHL experience
66 F John Ogrodnick - 928 games, 402 goals, 425 assists, 827 points, 260 PIM
87 L Joe Paterson - 291 games, 19 goals, 37 assists, 56 points, 831 PIM
108 L Carmine Cirella - no NHL experience
totals: 6 players, 2305 games, 790 goals, 849 assists, 1639 points, 3166 PIM
averages: 384.17 games, 131.67 goals, 141.5 assists, 273.17 points, 527.67 PIM per draftee, .71 pts/game

1981
23 F Claude Loiselle - 616 games, 92 goals, 117 assists, 209 points, 1149 PIM
44 G Corrado Micalef - 113 games, 5794 minutes, 4.24 GAA, 6 assists, 43 PIM
86 D Larry Trader - 91 games, 5 goals, 13 assists, 18 points, 74 PIM
107 L Gerard Gallant - 615 games, 211 goals, 269 assists, 480 points, 1677 PIM
128 G Greg Stefan - 299 games, 16333 minutes, 3.92 GAA, 15 assists, 200 PIM
149 D Rick Zombo - 652 games, 24 goals, 130 assists, 154 points, 728 PIM
170 Don Leblanc - no NHL experience
191 D Robert Nordmark - 236 games, 13 goals, 70 assists, 83 points, 254 PIM
totals: 8 players, 2622 games, 345 goals, 614 assists, 959 points, 4082 PIM, 412 goalie games, 22127 minutes, 4.24 + 3.92 GAA
averages: 327.75 games, 43.13 goals, 76.75 assists, 119.88 points, 510.25 PIM per draftee, .37 pts/game

1983
4 C Steve Yzerman - 1453 games, 678 goals, 1043 assists, 1721 points, 906 PIM
25 R Lane Lambert - 283 games, 58 goals, 67 assists, 125 points, 521 PIM
46 L Bob Probert - 935 games, 163 goals, 221 assists, 384 points, 3300 PIM
68 D Dave Korol - no NHL experience
86 L Petr Klima - 786 games, 313 goals, 260 assists, 573 points, 671 PIM
88 R Joey Kocur - 820 games, 80 goals, 82 assists, 162 points, 2519 PIM
106 G Chris Pusey - 1 games, 40 minutes, 4.50 GAA
126 Bob Pierson - no NHL experience
146 Craig Butz - no NHL experience
166 D Dave Sikorski - no NHL experience
186 L Stu Grimson - 729 games, 17 goals, 22 assists, 39 points, 2113 PIM
206 Jeff Frank - no NHL experience
226 Chuck Chiatto - no NHL experience
totals: 13 players, 5007 games, 1309 goals, 1695 assists, 3004 points, 10030 PIM, 1 goalie games, 40 minutes, 4.50 GAA
averages: 385.15 games, 100.69 goals, 130.38 assists, 231.08 points, 771.54 PIM per draftee, .60 pts/game

1985
8 R Brent Fedyk - 470 games, 97 goals, 112 assists, 209 points, 308 PIM
29 D Jeff Sharples - 105 games, 14 goals, 35 assists, 49 points, 70 PIM
50 D Steve Chiasson - 751 games, 93 goals, 305 assists, 398 points, 1107 PIM
71 G Mark Gowens - no NHL experience
92 D Chris Luongo - 218 games, 8 goals, 23 assists, 31 points, 176 PIM
113 R Randy McKay - 932 games, 162 goals, 201 assists, 363 points, 1731 PIM
134 Thomas Bjuhr - no NHL experience
155 Mike Luckraft - no NHL experience
176 D Rob Schena - no NHL experience
197 D Erik Hamalainen - no NHL experience
218 C Bo Svanberg - no NHL experience
239 D Mikael Lindman - no NHL experience
totals: 12 players, 2476 games, 374 goals, 676 assists, 1050 points, 3392 PIM
averages: 206.33 games, 31.17 goals, 56.33 assists, 87.5 points, 282.67 PIM per draftee, .42 pts/game

1986
1 R Joe Murphy - 779 games, 233 goals, 295 assists, 528 points, 810 PIM
22 L Adam Graves - 1152 games, 329 goals, 287 assists, 616 points, 1224 PIM
43 D Derek Mayer - 17 games, 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points, 8 PIM
64 G Tim Cheveldae - 340 games, 19171 minutes, 3.49 GAA, .883 SV%, 16 assists, 18 PIM
85 L Johan Garpenlov - 609 games, 114 goals, 196 assists, 310 points, 276 PIM
106 Jay Stark - no NHL experience
127 D Par Djoos - 82 games, 2 goals, 31 assists, 33 points, 58 PIM
148 D Dean Morton - 1 games, 1 goals, 0 assists, 1 points, 2 PIM
169 R Marc Potvin - 121 games, 3 goals, 5 assists, 8 points, 456 PIM
190 G Scott King - 2 games, 61 minutes, 2.95 GAA, .813 SV%
211 L Tom Bissett - 5 games, 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points, 0 PIM
232 Peter Ekroth - no NHL experience
totals: 12 players, 3108 games, 684 goals, 832 assists, 1516 points, 2852 PIM, 342 goalie games, 19232 minutes, 3.49 + 2.95 GAA, .883 + .813 SV%
averages: 259 games, 57 goals, 69.33 assists, 126.33 points, 237.67 PIM per draftee, .49 pts/game

1989
11 C Mike Sillinger - 829 games, 166 goals, 232 assists, 398 points, 507 PIM
32 D Bob Boughner - 589 games, 14 goals, 51 assists, 65 points, 1328 PIM
53 D Nicklas Lidstrom - 1016 games, 173 goals, 553 assists, 726 points, 276 PIM
74 C Sergei Fedorov - 988 games, 431 goals, 588 assists, 1019 points, 629 PIM
95 C Shawn McCosh - 9 games, 1 goals, 0 assists, 1 points, 6 PIM
116 R Dallas Drake - 822 games, 166 goals, 267 assists, 433 points, 747 PIM
137 D Scott Zygulski - no NHL experience
158 D Andy Suhy - no NHL experience
179 Bob Jones - no NHL experience
200 D Greg Bignell - no NHL experience
204 L Rick Judson - no NHL experience
221 D Vladimir Konstantinov - 446 games, 47 goals, 127 assists, 174 points, 838 PIM
242 R Joe Frederick - no NHL experience
246 G Jason Glickman - no NHL experience
totals: 14 players, 4699 games, 998 goals, 1818 assists, 2816 points, 4331 PIM
averages: 335.64 games, 71.29 goals, 129.86 assists, 201.14 points, 309.36 PIM per draftee, .60 pts/game

1990
3 C Keith Primeau - 900 games, 265 goals, 347 assists, 612 points, 1535 PIM
45 L Vyacheslav Kozlov - 800 games, 252 goals, 307 assists, 559 points, 532 PIM
66 D Stewart Malgunas - 129 games, 1 goals, 5 assists, 6 points, 144 PIM
87 D Tony Burns - no NHL experience
108 D Claude Barthe - no NHL experience
129 D Jason York - 708 games, 41 goals, 180 assists, 221 points, 589 PIM
150 D Wes McCauley - no NHL experience
171 F Tony Gruba - no NHL experience
192 D Travis Tucker - no NHL experience
213 D Brett Larson - no NHL experience
234 L John Hendry - no NHL experience
totals: 11 players, 2537 games, 559 goals, 839 assists, 1398 points, 2800 PIM
averages: 230.64 games, 50.82 goals, 76.27 assists, 127.09 points, 254.54 PIM per draftee, .55 pts/game

1991
10 R Martin Lapointe - 757 games, 148 goals, 165 assists, 313 points, 1143 PIM
32 D Jamie Pushor - 517 games, 13 goals, 44 assists, 57 points, 648 PIM
54 G Chris Osgood - 568 games, 32604 minutes, 2.44 GAA, .907 SV%, 1 goal, 12 assists, 111 PIM
76 R Mike Knuble - 510 games, 101 goals, 107 assists, 208 points, 224 PIM
98 D Dmitri Motkov - no NHL experience
142 D Igor Malykhin - no NHL experience
186 C Jim Bermingham - no NHL experience
208 C Jason Firth - no NHL experience
230 Bart Turner - no NHL experience
252 C Andrew Miller - no NHL experience
totals: 10 players, 2352 games, 263 goals, 328 assists, 591 points, 2126 PIM, 568 goalie games, 32604 minutes, 2.44 GAA, .907 SV%
averages: 235.2 games, 26.3 goals, 32.8 assists, 59.1 points, 212.6 PIM per draftee, .25 pts/game

Worst Draft Years

These are the most notable bad drafts the Wings have had:

1972
26 L Pierre Guite - no NHL experience
42 R Bob Krieger - no NHL experience
58 L Danny Gruen - 49 games, 9 goals, 13 assists, 22 points, 19 PIM
74 L Dennis Johnson - no NHL experience
90 Bill Miller - no NHL experience
106 G Glen Seperich - no NHL experience
122 D Mike Ford - no NHL experience
138 D George Kuzmicz - no NHL experience
150 Dave Arundel - no NHL experience
totals: 9 players, 49 games, 9 goals, 13 assists, 22 points, 19 PIM
averages: 5.44 games, 1 goals, 1.44 assists, 2.44 points, 2.11 PIM per draftee, .45 pts/game

1987
11 D Yves Racine - 508 games, 37 goals, 194 assists, 231 points, 439 PIM
32 D Gord Kruppke - 23 games, 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points, 32 PIM
41 D Bob Wilkie - 18 games, 2 goals, 5 assists, 7 points, 10 PIM
52 C Dennis Holland - no NHL experience
74 G Mark Reimer - no NHL experience
95 Radomir Brazda - no NHL experience
116 Sean Clifford - no NHL experience
137 L Mike Gober - no NHL experience
158 L Kevin Scott - no NHL experience
179 Mikko Haapakoski - no NHL experience
200 D Darin Banister - no NHL experience
221 Craig Quinlan - no NHL experience
242 Tomas Jansson - no NHL experience
totals: 13 players, 549 games, 39 goals, 199 assists, 238 points, 481 PIM
averages: 42.23 games, 3 goals, 15.31 assists, 18.31 points, 37 PIM per draftee, .43 pts/game

1988
17 R Kory Kocur - no NHL experience
38 D Serge Anglehart - no NHL experience
47 D Guy Dupuis - no NHL experience
59 R Petr Hrbek - no NHL experience
80 R Sheldon Kennedy - 310 games, 49 goals, 58 assists, 107 points, 233 PIM
143 R Kelly Hurd - no NHL experience
164 Brian McCormack - no NHL experience
185 D Jody Praznik - no NHL experience
206 C Glen Goodall - no NHL experience
227 R Darren Colbourne - no NHL experience
248 C Don Stone - no NHL experience
totals: 11 players, 310 games, 49 goals, 58 assists, 107 points, 233 PIM
averages: 28.18 games, 4.45 goals, 5.27 assists, 9.73 points, 21.18 PIM per draftee, .35 pts/game

Analysis

Looking at the data, it is clear to me that the Wings' drafting, beginning in 1983 through 1994, led to the Stanley Cup wins of 1997 and 1998, and even 2002 (although additions such as Luc Robitaille, Brett Hull, and Dominik Hasek were also big factors). The Cup core of Steve Yzerman, Joey Kocur, Nicklas Lidstrom, Sergei Fedorov, Vladimir Konstantinov, Chris Osgood, Martin Lapointe, Vyacheslav Kozlov, Darren McCarty, Tomas Holmstrom, and Mathieu Dandenault came out of these years. After years of playoff failures, this group came together and ended a 42 year Cup drought in 1997, sweeping the Philadelphia Flyers.

One can see why the Dead Wings Era existed. While the Wings had some respectable drafts, they never really hit a home run between 1972 and 1978. The Wings were brought to life with the 1983, which produced franchise player and captain, Steve Yzerman, the Bruise Brothers, Bob Probert and Joey Kocur, as well as tough man Stu Grimson. The best draft pick the Wings ever did was picking Steve Yzerman fourth in the 1983 draft, especially when Pat LaFontaine went at three, doomed to a concussion-ended NHL career. LaFontaine was a local boy from Waterford and the Wings had their eye on him before Yzerman, but, luckily, the New York Islanders took him at three.

It is also important to mention the Wings' drafting during years of success. When they were doing well during the regular season and getting late draft picks, many of which they ended up trading away (Shanahan, Hasek deals), they still maintained a good pool of talent. For example, Vladimir Konstantinov in 1989, Dan McGillis in 1992, Tomas Holmstrom in 1994, Pavel Datsyuk in 1998, Henrik Zetterberg in 1999, and Dmitry Bykov in 2001. And, whenever people tell you that the Wings bought their three Stanley Cups of the modern era, remind them of these players. The only Cup I will even remotely say the Wings bought was in 2002, after summer signings of Luc Robitaille, Dominik Hasek, and Brett Hull. But the core of the team still played a major part in that season's success.

In addition, it is important to consider that good drafting and retention of drafted talent leads to a high salary payout. The Wings drafted Sergei Fedorov, Nicklas Lidstrom, and Steve Yzerman, so are you going to complain that the Wings buy their Cups when they pay these stars top dollar? You can't punish the Wings for drafting well and retaining many of the great players club scouts earmarks. The Wings helped open the gate to the USSR when they drafted Sergei Fedorov in 1989 (Alexander Mogilny was the first to defect in 1988), and have had a great success rate with Swedish-born players (Nicklas Lidstrom, Tomas Holmstrom, Henrik Zetterberg, and Anders Eriksson). So never compare the Wings to the New York Rangers, a team that has an overall better drafting history than the Wings but have bought their current roster. The New York Rangers we know today are more about prestige and big-name presentation than locker room chemistry.

Here's an article from the Detroit News, highlighting the Wings' draft of 1989, one of the greatest drafts in NHL history.

Quotes

These are two quotes about the NHL draft:

Scotty Bowman, at the 1983 NHL entry draft as general manager of the Buffalo Sabres:

"After today, those numbers mean nothing, except to the kids and their agents trying to get a better contract...When they come to training camp, they won't have those same numbers on their backs, they will be just like the rest of the guys -- trying to earn a job. Then, the numbers will mean nothing."

Hall of Fame goaltender Ken Dryden, now the president of the Toronto Maple Leafs, on diamonds in the rough:

"Dominik Hasek was the 207th pick in his draft year (1983 by Chicago), Brett Hull was 117th (by Calgary in 1984), Luc Robitaille was No. 171 (by Los Angeles in '84). Scouts and players in this great game have learned long ago that you never give up, no matter what number they attach to you on draft day."

Draft Success of all Teams in NHL History: 1963-2002

2006-02-28T20:55:00.000-08:00

The following is a list of all the teams in NHL history and a study of their draft success, from 1963 through the 2002 draft. Statistics include average games played in the NHL of drafted players (regular season only) as well as the number of NHL players picked per draft year. I will also show the teams' Stanley Cup wins from 1964 through 2003. Even if the drafted player doesn't stay on the team, this is a way of showing which teams have the best drafting instincts. The source of my data is hockeyDB, and I will only be counting drafts through 2002, as using the 2003 and 2004 drafts would skew the results since nearly all of these draftees haven't had a chance of playing in the NHL. There are 41 total teams documented, and, at the end of the article, I list franchises together if applicable.

Conditions: Playing in the WHA is admirable, but doesn't count for this study. Just as teams' statistics will be hurt if they were around during the WHA of the 1970's, so will teams who don't have their 2002 draft picks active. This is why, when comparing teams, we must consider the situations during their respective histories. In other words, we can't blindly compare the Original Six Detroit Red Wings to the fledgling Ottawa Senators and expect a concrete conclusion. Draft success can't be extrapolated into overall success, as teams don't necessarily have to keep a draftee. In addition, other teams can buy out good drafting teams, and teams with good drafting instincts can have bad instincts in managing prospects after the summer draft. Another factor I considered was that some players have been drafted twice. I gave credit to all teams who picked the player, even if the player only made the NHL after the second/third/etc. drafting. This is giving credit for the initial good drafting instinct, but forgiving later circumstances for the sake of this focused study

The larger goal of this study is to see whether the statistical law of averages applies in NHL drafting. Or, in other words, do draft picks average out to a universal result throughout the league, or is there such a thing as good drafting instincts? And which teams have a golden touch when it comes to dipping their ladles into the pool of NHL prospects and coming out with a gem?

Vintage

1. Quebec Nordiques (1979-1994): 97/182 [53.3%] made NHL, 175.1 average games played [31,868 total games] - 16 draft years, 6.1 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups

2. Hartford Whalers (1979-1996): 79/178 [44.4%] made NHL, 157.1 average games played [27,959 total games] - 18 draft years, 4.4 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups

3. Buffalo Sabres (1970-2004): 168/347 [48.4%] made NHL, 147.2 average games played [51,067 total games] - 33 draft years, 5.1 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups

4. Winnipeg Jets (1979-1995): 93/196 [47.4%] made NHL, 146.94 average games played [28,800 total games] - 17 draft years, 5.5 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups

5. Montreal Canadiens (1963-2004): 191/461 [41.4%] made NHL, 146.92 average games played [67,728 total games] - 40 draft years, 4.8 NHL players/draft - 12 Stanley Cups

6. New-Jersey Devils (1982-2004): 112/239 [46.9%] made NHL, 143.2 average games played [34,225 total games] - 21 draft years, 5.3 NHL players/draft - 3 Stanley Cups

7. Boston Bruins (1963-2004): 154/346 [44.5%] made NHL, 139.2 average games played [48,173 total games] - 40 draft years, 3.9 NHL players/draft - 2 Stanley Cups

8. New-York Rangers (1963-2004): 166/403 [41.2%] made NHL, 135.7 average games played [54,686 total games] - 40 draft years, 4.2 NHL players/draft - 1 Stanley Cup

9. New-York Islanders (1972-2004): 147/351 [41.9%] made NHL, 132.3 average games played [46,447 total games] - 31 draft years, 4.7 NHL players/draft - 4 Stanley Cups

10. Toronto Maple Leafs (1963-2004): 160/368 [43.5%] made NHL, 131.5 average games played [48,381 total games] - 40 draft years, 4.0 NHL players/draft - 2 Stanley Cups

11. Detroit Red Wings (1963-2004): 141/372 [37.9%] made NHL, 125.8 average games played [46,801 total games] - 40 draft years, 3.5 NHL players/draft - 3 Stanley Cups

12. Vancouver Canucks (1970-2004): 139/321 [43.3%] made NHL, 125.3 average games played [40,210 total games] - 23 draft years, 6.0 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups

13. Philadelphia Flyers (1967-2004): 141/359 [39.3%] made NHL, 114. 3 average games played [41,031 total games] - 36 draft years, 3.9 NHL players/draft - 2 Stanley Cups

14. Chicago Blackhawks (1963-2004): 140/364 [38.5%] made NHL, 111.9 average games played [40,728 total games] - 40 draft years, 3.5 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups

15. Minnesota North Stars (1967-1992): 109/261 [41.8%] made NHL, 109.6 average games played [28,615 total games] - 26 draft years, 3.0 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups

16. Calgary Flames (1980-2004): 101/262 [38.5%] made NHL, 109.0 average games played [28,568 total games] - 23 draft years, 4.4 NHL players/draft - 1 Stanley Cup

17. Washington Capitals (1974-2004): 137/322 [42.5%] made NHL, 106.5 average games played [34,306 total games] - 29 draft years, 4.7 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups

18. Pittsburgh Penguins (1967-2004): 151/338 [44.7%] made NHL, 106.2 average games played [35,887 total games] - 36 draft years, 4.2 NHL players/draft - 2 Stanley Cups

19. Los-Angeles Kings (1967-2004): 134/323 [41.5%] made NHL, 103.5 average games played [33,432 total games] - 36 draft years, 3.7 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups

20. Edmonton Oilers (1979-2004): 98/259 [37.8%] made NHL, 102.3 average games played [26,493 total games] - 24 draft years, 4.1 NHL players/draft - 5 Stanley Cups

21. St. Louis Blues (1968-2004): 128/350 [36.6%] made NHL, 99.5 average games played [34,840 total games] - 25 draft years, 5.1 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups

Original Six

1. Montreal Canadiens (1963-2004): 191/461 [41.4%] made NHL, 146.9 average games played [67,728 total games] - 40 draft years, 4.8 NHL players/draft - 12 Stanley Cups

2. Boston Bruins (1963-2004): 154/346 [44.5%] made NHL, 139.2 average games played [48,173 total games] - 40 draft years, 3.9 NHL players/draft - 2 Stanley Cups

3. New-York Rangers (1963-2004): 166/403 [41.2%] made NHL, 135.7 average games played [54,686 total games] - 40 draft years, 4.2 NHL players/draft - 1 Stanley Cup

4. Toronto Maple Leafs (1963-2004): 160/368 [43.5%] made NHL, 131.5 average games played [48,381 total games] - 40 draft years, 4.0 NHL players/draft - 2 Stanley Cups

5. Detroit Red Wings (1963-2004): 141/372 [37.9%] made NHL, 125.8 average games played [46,801 total games] - 40 draft years, 3.5 NHL players/draft - 3 Stanley Cups

6. Chicago Blackhawks (1963-2004): 140/364 [38.5%] made NHL, 111.9 average games played [40,728 total games] - 40 draft years, 3.5 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups

Recent Additions

1. San Jose Sharks (1991-2004): 46/112 [41.1%] made NHL, 100.8 average games played [11,285 total games] - 12 draft years, 3.8 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups

2. Ottawa Senators (1992-2004): 47/107 [43.9%] made NHL, 83.8 average games played [8,965 total games] - 11 draft years, 4.3 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups

3. Anaheim Mighty Ducks (1993-2004): 37/82 [45.1%] made NHL, 76.2 average games played [6,250 total games] - 10 draft years, 3.7 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups

4. Florida Panthers (1993-2004): 40/99 [40.4%] made NHL, 73.7 average games played [7,293 total games] - 10 draft years, 4.0 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups

5. Tampa-Bay Lightning (1992-2004): 38/117 [32.5%] made NHL, 58.1 average games played [6,800 total games] - 11 draft years, 3.5 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups

6. Colorado Avalanche (1995-2004): 36/86 [41.9%] made NHL, 57.1 average games played [4,908 total games] - 8 draft years, 4.5 NHL players/draft - 2 Stanley Cups

7. Dallas Stars (1993-2004): 30/94 [31.9%] made NHL, 46.5 average games played [4,368 total games] - 10 draft years, 3.0 NHL players/draft - 1 Stanley Cup

8. Minnesota Wild (2000-2004): 10/26 [38.5%] made NHL, 37.7 average games played [981 total games] - 3 draft years, 3.3 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups

9. Carolina Hurricanes (1997-2004): 18/48 [37.5%] made NHL, 37.1 average games played [1,781 total games] - 6 draft years, 3.0 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups

10. Nashville Predators (1998-2004): 17/52 [32.7%] made NHL, 35.8 average games played [1,859 total games] - 5 draft years, 3.4 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups

11. Phoenix Coyotes (1996-2004): 19/61 [31.1%] made NHL, 30.0 average games played [1,833 total games] - 7 draft years, 2.7 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups

12. Atlanta Thrashers (1999-2004): 12/44 [27.3%] made NHL, 27.0 average games played [1,190 total games] - 4 draft years, 3.0 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups

13. Columbus Blue Jackets (2000-2004): 9/35 [25.7%] made NHL, 17.8 average games played [622 total games] - 3 draft years, 3.0 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups

Short-Lived Leftovers

1. California Seals (1974-1976): 14/26 [53.8%] made NHL, 164.2 average games played [4,270 total games] - 3 draft years, 4.7 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups

2. Atlanta Flames (1972-1979): 39/78 [50%] made NHL, 162.3 average games played [12,659 total games] - 8 draft years, 4.9 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups

3. Kansas-City Scouts (1974-1976): 13/26 [50%] made NHL, 142.7 average games played [3,709 total games] - 3 draft years, 4.3 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups

4. Colorado Rockies (1977-1981): 28/45 [62.2%] made NHL, 135.6 average games played [6,101 total games] - 5 draft years, 5.6 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups

5. California Golden Seals (1970-1973): 21/34 [61.8%] made NHL, 108.1 average games played [3,676 total games] - 4 draft years, 5.3 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups

6. Oakland Seals (1967-1969): 5/12 [41.7%] made NHL, 98.8 average games played [1,185 total games] - 3 draft years, 1.7 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups

7. Cleveland Barons (1977): 5/9 [55.6%] made NHL, 88.8 average games played [799 total games] - 1 draft year, 5.0 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups

Overall Individual Teams

The following is an overall listing of all the above teams and their respective average games played per draftee:

1. Quebec Nordiques (175.1)
2. California Seals (164.2)
3. Atlanta Flames (162.3)
4. Hartford Whalers (157.1)
5. Buffalo Sabres (147.2)
6. Winnipeg Jets (146.94)
7. Montreal Canadiens (146.92)
8. New-Jersey Devils (143.2)
9. Kansas-City Scouts (142.7)
10. Boston Bruins (139.2)
11. New-York Rangers (135.7)
12. Colorado Rockies (135.6)
13. New-York Islanders (132.3)
14. Toronto Maple Leafs (131.5)
15. Detroit Red Wings (125.8)
16. Vancouver Canucks (125.3)
NHL AVERAGE (118.2)
17. Philadelphia Flyers (114.3)
18. Chicago Blackhawks (111.9)
19. Minnesota North Stars (109.6)
20. Calgary Flames (109.0)
21. California Golden Seals (108.1)
22. Washington Capitals (106.5)
23. Pittsburgh Penguins (106.2)
24. Los-Angeles Kings (103.5)
25. Edmonton Oilers (102.3)
26. San Jose Sharks (100.8)
27. St. Louis Blues (99.5)
28. Oakland Seals (98.8)
29. Cleveland Barons (88.8)
30. Ottawa Senators (83.8)
31. Anaheim Mighty Ducks (76.2)
32. Florida Panthers (73.7)
33. Tampa-Bay Lightning (58.1)
34. Colorado Avalanche (57.1)
35. Dallas Stars (46.5)
36. Minnesota Wild (37.7)
37. Carolina Hurricanes (37.1)
38. Nashville Predators (35.8)
39. Phoenix Coyotes (30.0)
40. Atlanta Thrashers (27.0)
41. Columbus Blue Jackets (17.8)

Total Players Drafted: 7,791

Total Players Made NHL: 3,266 (41.9% of draftees play at least one NHL game)

Total Games: 920,779

NHL Average, Games Played per Draftee: 118.2

NHL Average, NHL Players/Draft: 4.1

Franchise Mode

The following is an overall listing of all the above teams, with some shown as a single franchise that moved from city to city:

Quebec Nordiques (1979-1994) + Colorado Avalanche (1995-2004) = 133/268 [49.6%] made NHL, 137.2 average games played [36,776 total games] - 24 draft years, 5.5 NHL players/draft - 2 Stanley Cups

Minnesota North Stars (1967-1992) + Dallas Stars (1993-2004) = 139/355 [39.2%] made NHL, 92.9 average games played [32,983 total games] - 36 draft years, 3.9 NHL players/draft - 1 Stanley Cups

Hartford Whalers (1979-1996) + Carolina Hurricanes (1997-2004) = 97/226 [42.9%] made NHL, 131.6 average games played [29,740 total games] - 24 draft years, 4.0 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups

Winnipeg Jets (1979-1995) + Phoenix Coyotes (1996-2004) = 112/257 [43.6%] made NHL, 119.2 average games played [30,633 total games] - 24 draft years, 4.7 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups

Atlanta Flames (1972-1979) + Calgary Flames (1980-2004) = 140/340 [41.2%] made NHL, 121.3 average games played [41,227 total games] - 31 draft years, 4.5 NHL players/draft - 1 Stanley Cup

Kansas-City Scouts (1974-1976) + Colorado Rockies (1977-1981) + New-Jersey Devils (1982-2004) = 153/310 [49.4%] made NHL, 142.0 average games played [44,035 total games] - 29 draft years, 5.3 NHL players/draft - 3 Stanley Cups

Oakland Seals (1967-1969) + California Golden Seals (1970-1973) + California Seals (1974-1976) + Cleveland Barons (1977) = 45/81 [55.6%] made NHL, 122.6 average games played [9,930 total games] - 11 draft years, 4.1 NHL players/draft - 0 Stanley Cups

This is what the standings look like when these figures are adjusted:

Overall Franchise Ranking

1. Buffalo Sabres (147.2)
2. Montreal Canadiens (146.92)
3. Kansas-City Scouts + Colorado Rockies + New-Jersey Devils (142.0)
4. Boston Bruins (139.2)
5. Quebec Nordiques + Colorado Avalanche (137.2)
6. New-York Rangers (135.7)
7. New-York Islanders (132.3)
8. Hartford Whalers + Carolina Hurricanes (131.6)
9. Toronto Maple Leafs (131.5)
10. Detroit Red Wings (125.8)
11. Vancouver Canucks (125.3)
12. Oakland Seals + California Golden Seals + California Seals + Cleveland Barons (122.6)
13. Atlanta Flames + Calgary Flames (121.3)
14. Winnipeg Jets + Phoenix Coyotes (119.2)
NHL AVERAGE (118.2)
15. Philadelphia Flyers (114.3)
16. Chicago Blackhawks (111.9)
17. Washington Capitals (106.5)
18. Pittsburgh Penguins (106.2)
19. Los-Angeles Kings (103.5)
20. Edmonton Oilers (102.3)
21. San Jose Sharks (100.8)
22. St. Louis Blues (99.5)
23. Minnesota North Stars + Dallas Stars (92.9)
24. Ottawa Senators (83.8)
25. Anaheim Mighty Ducks (76.2)
26. Florida Panthers (73.7)
27. Tampa-Bay Lightning (58.1)
28. Minnesota Wild (37.7)
29. Nashville Predators (35.8)
30. Atlanta Thrashers (27.0)
31. Columbus Blue Jackets (17.8)

Analysis

In looking at the results, one should do more than a one-dimension analysis of the standings. As mentioned in the "Conditions" section above, there are many factors that work in bringing about a Stanley Cup champion.

The St Louis Blues are ranked 22/31 overall (21/21 Vintage) and are one of the worst drafting long-time franchises. Their 99.5 average games played per draftee is well below the league average of 118.2, and their 5.1 NHL players/draft is above the league average of 4.1. These figures represent a problem in the Blues' franchise: an inability in getting long-time NHLers in the draft. And, in their case, bad drafting partly translated to no Stanley Cups in their team history, with the Red Wings' dominance also playing a big part in the Arched City's Cup woes.

Looking at the Winnipeg Jets (4 Vintage) and Montreal Canadiens (5 Vintage), their average games played per draftee are near identical (146.94 and 146.92). Then average NHL player/draft: the Jets averaged 5.5 and the Canadiens averaged 4.8. The Jets had 47.4% of their picks make the NHL, while the Canadiens 41.4%. If the Jets had made 461 picks over 40 years (as the Canadiens did) they were on pace to net 218.7 NHLers, compared to the Canadiens' 191. So the Jets look to be the better drafting team, although it's hard to argue against 12 Stanley Cups between 1964 and 2003.

All conditions isolated, if it takes the Jets the 218.7/461 picks to stay even with the Canadiens with respect to the average games played per draftee figure, sure, they still have a better percentage of their players making the NHL. But there is a larger issue at hand: the Jets' 5.5 average NHL players/draft when compared to the Canadiens' 4.8 reveals much about the quality of draftees. It reflects that the Jets are not getting as many long-time NHLers as the Canadiens, who, on average, are getting more games from the guys who make the NHL. The Jets extrapolated to 40 years of drafting would have an average of 309.7 games/NHLer, compared to the Canadiens' 354.6. So the Canadiens get the nod, and number two overall in the franchise ranking shows a lot.

Looking at the Vintage Teams, which are the primary focus of this study anyway, I will try to find a correlation between draft success and Cup success. The league average of games played per draftee is 118.2. There are 10 Cups below this mark, 27 above, and 3 in the recent additions (2 Avs, 1 Stars). So 25% of the Cups between 1964 and 2003 were below the league average for drafting, 67.5% above, and 7.5% were recent additions. So it definitely helps to be a good drafting team, but I am not going to say that there is a direct correlation between Cup wins and draft success. In my statistics class in high school, I learned that correlations between variables must be qualified, just in case there are lurking variables also affecting an outcome. Surely in this case, other factors affect a team's Cup chances. So I will stick with saying that a team has a better chance to win the Cup if it is on the good side of the league average for drafting, based on strict probability.

Looking at where the Wings stand (11/21 Vintage, 10/31 Overall), with 125.8 average games played and 37.9% of picks making the NHL, one must understand that the WHA and Dead Wings Era hurt the Wings' statistics. While tabulating the data, I saw the Wings' stature jump considerably from 1983 (Steve Yzerman drafting) on. In a follow-up study, I will go into greater detail on the drafting success of the Detroit Red Wings, highlighting their best drafting years and analyze why their average stands where it does. One of my motivations in researching this topic was to see where the Wings take their place among other teams in NHL history, so I will break down the Wings' 40 years of drafting in the follow-up.

My conclusion in this draft study is that there clearly is such a thing as good drafting instinct, and that some teams are definitely better than others. Also, being a team which possesses this mysterious drafting ability gives one a much better chance at winning the Cup. Finally, even if one is doing well with their average games played per draftee figure, the average NHL players/draft year figure shows whether a team is taking long-time NHLers or people who have a cup of coffee in the league.

Link

Check out this draft study done by two economics professors at McMaster University (Hamilton, Ontario). You'll need to have Adobe Acrobat, as it is a pdf file.

Where all 5,592 Players in NHL History Came From

2006-02-28T20:53:00.000-08:00

The following is a list of the places of origin for all NHL players in the history of the league (1926 to present), based on the database on hockeydb.com, "the internet's largest repository of hockey data," as of 7/22/04. This data is intended to give a general idea of where professional hockey players come from.  I do not vouch for the numbers to be precisely accurate, as some players' birthplaces were not listed in the database.  I have previously researched where current NHL players come from, as well as where minor league hockey players come from. This concludes my study of NHL player origins with a comprehensive listing of all player places of birth.

Europe/Other

Czech Republic: 155
Sweden: 148
Russia: 136
Finland: 101
Slovakia: 43
Scotland: 16
Germany: 16
England: 15
Ukraine: 14
Latvia: 10
Switzerland: 7
Poland: 7
Ireland: 6
Belarus: 5
France: 5
Kazakhstan: 3
Brazil: 2
South Korea: 2
Yugoslavia: 2
Wales: 2
Netherlands: 2
Italy: 2
Norway: 2
Lithuania: 2
Venezuela: 2
Brunei: 1
Austria: 1
Belgium: 1
Denmark: 1
Lebanon: 1
Jamaica: 1
South Africa: 1
Paraguay: 1
Nigeria: 1
Taiwan: 1
Haiti: 1
Tanzania: 1

Total Europe/Other: 717

United States

Minnesota: 151
Massachusetts: 131
Michigan: 90
New York: 56
Illinois: 27
Rhode Island: 18
Ohio: 18
Connecticut: 16
California: 13
Wisconsin: 10
Pennsylvania: 9
Washington: 7
North Dakota: 6
Indiana: 6
New Jersey: 5
Virginia: 5
Alaska: 5
Missouri: 5
Maine: 4
Colorado: 4
New Hampshire: 4
Oklahoma: 3
Florida: 3
Georgia: 3
Oregon: 3
South Dakota: 2
Idaho: 2
Texas: 2
Maryland: 2
Iowa: 2
Delaware: 1
Washington DC: 1
Utah: 1
Vermont: 1
Nebraska: 1
Alabama: 1
Arizona: 1

Total United States: 619

Canada

Ontario: 1690
Quebec: 632
Alberta: 421
Saskatchewan: 379
Manitoba: 282
British Columbia: 251
Nova Scotia: 50
New Brunswick: 40
Prince Edward Island: 19
Newfoundland: 18
Northwest Territories: 4
Yukon: 1

Total Canada: 3787

Total Parts Unknown (no birthplace listed): 469

Total NHL players documented: 5592

Percentages (not including the 469 unknown birthplaces)

Canada: 73.9% (3787/5123)
Europe/Other: 14.0% (717/5123)
United States: 12.1% (619/5123)

Big Three

Europe/Other: Czech Republic (155), Sweden (148), Russia (136)
United States: Minnesota (151), Massachusetts (131), Michigan (90)
Canada: Ontario (1690), Quebec (632), Alberta (421)

Factoids

To put these numbers into perspective: Between 1969 and 2003, 7970 players have been drafted in the NHL Entry Draft. Also, here is an interesting breakdown of hockey players and month born, made by an individual interested in the seasons and/or astrology. And finally, a breakdown of total NHL salaries per country of birth.

Analysis

Looking at the data, an NHL player is just as likely to have been born in Tanzania as in Alabama, with one player produced by each location. Southern states of Virginia (5), Georgia (3), Florida (3), Alabama (1), North Carolina (0), South Carolina (0), Tennessee (0), Mississippi (0), Arkansas (0), Louisiana (0), and Kentucky (0) have left virtually no mark on the player production chart through 78 years of NHL history.

36 states (and the District of Columbia) are represented on the player production chart, with North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, Kentucky, Hawaii, Montana, Wyoming, Nevada, New Mexico, Kansas, and West Virginia lacking any production. I find it scary that, in 78 years of NHL history, no native of these states has ever skated on an NHL rink.  I'd think a random blip in the general pattern of player production would eventually favor them, so maybe we'll see a Hawaiian native in another 78 years.

Of the 192 countries in the world (US recognizes 191, with Taiwan still as a part of China), 37 are represented on the player production chart (Wales and Scotland are a part of England).  I'd say that's a pretty good number, considering that hockey hasn't permeated into South America (15), Africa (54), or Asia (37), number of countries in parenthesis.

In 1983, 78.3% of NHL players were born in Canada, as opposed to the 52.6% today. Conversely, 16% of NHL players today were born in the United States, the highest mark in league history. This reflects the apparent growing diversity of the NHL. However, I find a void in this diversity when considering Southern states. While Northern/Midwestern states have steadily increased player production in recent years, Southern states have lagged far behind.

To me, this reflects how the Southern Culture and hockey are like oil and water. I have no hard time saying that hockey is not culturally compatible in all parts of the world. It's just a fact of the world that certain cultures and regions are more apt to play certain sports. Like I've said before, expecting hockey to flourish in the South is kind of like expecting Canadians to become world-class surfers and compete with Hawaiians and Californians. And would it really make sense for Canada to organize its own surfing league and import southern talent? If you say "no," then you should also say "no" to NHL hockey in the South, because that's exactly what's going on today.

I don't expect Southerners to play the "Yankee Game" at high levels, because it is meteorologically impossible for their children to skate on the local ponds. It takes a conscience investment in buying indoor rink time, as well as the expensive equipment that makes hockey a high-maintenance sport anywhere. The expensive aspect of playing hockey makes it difficult anywhere, something that sets it apart from sports like baseball and soccer, which only require willing players and an open field.  In addition, hockey has generally become a fad down south. The Florida Panthers that made the Finals in 1996, but a franchise downspiral in years later saw the hockey craze in Miami disappear as fast as Beanie Babies. I see Southern hockey as more of a business venture of entertainment than passion of the Game.

After finding only one Southern hockey player playing on a southern team in the five minor hockey leagues which the NHL recognizes (that's 34 teams and 622 players), I can't help but be pessimistic about future Southern hockey production. The fact is that Southern states are not producing much hockey talent beyond the high school level. And that happens to be the level where players can't realistically be outsourced from the North. In college and levels above, you'll be hard-pressed to find any Southern-born players.

One of the biggest problems I have with the expansion of hockey to the South is that it happened so fast. Nashville, Florida, Carolina, Atlanta, and Tampa Bay. In ways, interest should be a prerequisite for having an NHL team. Rather than implanting an NHL team in a dead-zone of hockey, and hope that interest trickles down to lower levels, I'd like to see a building interest in lower levels of the Game before awarding the region a team.  Gary Bettman's good intentions of spreading the Game turned into forcing it on a population and hoping that they would accept it. I'd rather teach people about hockey at lower levels of play, rather than starting from square one at the professional level. I would certainly not be against NHL hockey in the South if I saw a concrete interest in the Game. That said, I don't believe such a great interest will ever precipitate in the South, unless there's a mass exodus of Northerners moving into the region. Though this "mass exodus" happens every Spring Break in Florida, the second home of every Michigander, so I'd give Florida the best chance of becoming a viable hockey community.

The goal of this study is not to badger the Southern region nor divide the nation in terms of hockey in the North and Nascar in the South. I mean to offend no one, but want to present this data, and, at the very least, allow the reader to draw his/her own conclusion.